Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 271608
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Unit 1 Piles...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1008 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on March 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...An incoming system will bring another round of rain
and snow to the mountains and foothills starting this evening.
Freezing levels will be hovering around 9000ft this evening as
light precipitation will be possible beginning by 5 pm. Rain will
continue overnight with the freezing level dropping to 8500 by
Tuesday. There is enough lift that could change rain over to snow
by Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday evening. The best
set-up for the location of the fire would be with winds from the
north. There is some blocking from the south so intensity may pick
up Tuesday afternoon/evening as surface winds switch around.
Current snow amounts are looking anywhere from 6 to 12 inches over
the area by Wednesday morning. This will be a heavier, wetter
snow with the freezing levels only getting down to 6500-7000 ft.
Clouds will increase in coverage but soundings show enough
instability that could help dispersion through this afternoon
before becoming more stable overnight and therefore poor
dispersion.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers likely.
CWR.................45 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........89%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain until 0900, then rain showers.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........73%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0900, then northeast
                    6-7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......2700-3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. good after 1700.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers until 2100, then snow
                    showers until 2400, then snow likely.
CWR.................65 percent decreasing to 45 percent after
                    midnight.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........90%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6-12 mph.
Mixing height.......2500-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900. fair after 2400.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 1200, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%). Chance of snow until 1200, then
                    slight chance of snow showers until 1500, then
                    slight chance of rain showers.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 5 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........55%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5-11 mph.
Mixing height.......3700-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1500, then good until 1600, then
                    fair.
Haines Index........3 very low .


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Unit 1 Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

03/27-00 65  2  0 31 75 WSW  5  5 2 1 WNW 30  1146 WSW  6  5990 P
03/27-01 58  2  0 31 72 WSW  5  5 2 1 WNW 28  1098 WSW  7  6602 P
03/27-02 51  2  0 31 70 WSW  5  5 2 1   W 25  1050 WSW  8  7139 P
03/27-03 44  1  0 30 72 WSW  5  5 2 1   W 23  1002 WSW  9  7600 P
03/27-04 37  1  0 30 72 WSW  5  5 2 1   W 24  1271   W 10 11724 P
03/27-05 37  0  0 29 75 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 25  1541   W 13 16729 P
03/27-06 38  3  1 30 72 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 25  1810   W 14 22616 P
03/27-07 38  3  1 32 66 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 25  2624   W 16 36090 P
03/27-08 38  3  1 35 58 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 25  3438   W 17 51614  F
03/27-09 48  3  1 38 52 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 24  4251   W 18 69189   G
03/27-10 48  3  1 42 46 WSW  6  6 2 1   W 25  5566   W 17 83055   G
03/27-11 48  3  1 45 42 SSW  5  5 2 1 WSW 25  6881 WSW 16 93364   G
03/27-12 78 20  4 48 39 SSW  5  5 2 1 WSW 26  8195 WSW 14100116    V
03/27-13 78 20  4 49 38   S  5  5 2 1 WSW 23  8062  SW 13 84674   G
03/27-14 78 20  4 49 40 SSE  6  6 2 1 WSW 21  7929 SSW 10 69687   G
03/27-15 82 26  6 49 40 SSE  7  7 2 1 WSW 18  7797   S  8 55156  F
03/27-16 82 26  6 48 43 SSE  7  7 2 1 WSW 16  6694   S  9 53985  F
03/27-17 82 26  6 47 45 SSE  7  7 3 1  SW 15  5591   S 10 50630  F
03/27-18 95 54 29 45 49 SSE  7  7 3 1  SW 13  4489   S 12 45092  F
03/27-19 95 54 29 43 54 SSE  6  6 3 1  SW 15  3456 SSE  9 28025 P
03/27-20 95 54 29 40 63  SE  3  3 3 1 SSW 18  2423 SSE  7 14958 P
03/27-21 86 57 33 37 73  SE  2  2 3 1 SSW 22  1390  SE  5  5890 P
03/27-22 86 57 33 35 79   E  2  2 3 1 SSW 17  1353   S  5  5852 P
03/27-23 86 57 33 33 85 NNE  3  3 2 1 SSW 14  1317   W  5  5808 P
03/28-00 92 65 45 32 89   N  3  3 2 1  SW  9  1280  NW  5  5758 P
03/28-01 92 65 45 32 89   N  3  3 2 1  SW  9  1250  NW  5  4868 P
03/28-02 92 65 45 32 89   N  2  2 3 1  SW  9  1220 NNW  3  4015 P
03/28-03 92 65 45 32 89   N  2  2 3 1  SW  9  1190 NNW  3  3198 P
03/28-04 92 65 45 33 85   N  2  2 3 1   S  8  1360   N  5  4912 P
03/28-05 92 65 45 33 85   N  2  2 3 1   E  7  1530   N  5  6461 P
03/28-06 96 78 65 34 82   N  2  2 3 1 ENE  6  1700   N  6  8219 P
03/28-07 96 78 65 35 80   N  3  3 3 1 ENE  8  1962   N  9 14769 P
03/28-08 96 78 65 35 81 NNE  3  3 3 1   E 10  2223 NNE 12 22730 P
03/28-09 97 78 65 36 79  NE  5  5 3 1   E 13  2485 NNE 15 32101 P
03/28-10 97 78 65 37 77  NE  6  6 3 1   E 13  2819 NNE 16 38309 P
03/28-11 97 78 65 37 78  NE  6  6 3 1 ESE 14  3154 NNE 16 44966  F
03/28-12 98 81 70 38 76  NE  7  7 3 3 ESE 14  3488 NNE 17 52071  F
03/28-13 98 81 70 39 73  NE  7  7 3 3 ESE 13  3582 NNE 17 54743  F
03/28-14 98 81 70 39 73  NE  7  7 3 3 ESE 13  3676 NNE 18 57481  F
03/28-15 97 81 70 39 73 NNE  7  7 3 3 ESE 12  3770 NNE 18 60286   G
03/28-16 98 81 70 38 75 NNE  8 13 3 3   E 12  3682 NNE 20 63152   G
03/28-17 98 81 70 38 74 NNE  9 15 3 3  NE 10  3594   N 21 65814   G
03/28-18 99 78 65 37 76   N 10 16 3 1 NNE  9  3506   N 22 68273   G
03/28-19 99 78 65 35 81   N 10 16 3 1 NNE 12  3343   N 23 67069   G
03/28-20 99 78 65 35 80   N  9 16 3 1 NNE 13  3180   N 24 65674   G
03/28-21 99 78 65 34 82   N  9 15 3 1 NNE 15  3018 NNW 24 64087   G
03/28-22 99 78 65 32 86   N  9 15 3 1   N 14  2820 NNW 23 56958  F
03/28-23 99 78 65 32 84   N  9 15 3 1   N 14  2623 NNW 22 50240  F
03/29-00 98 64 44 31 85   N  9 15 3 1   N 14  2426 NNW 21 43933  F
03/29-01 95 64 44 30 87   N  9 14 3 1   N 14  2457 NNW 21 44460  F
03/29-02 95 64 44 30 86   N  8 14 2 1   N 15  2487 NNW 21 44987  F
03/29-03 92 61 39 30 85   N  8 13 2 1   N 16  2517 NNW 21 45513  F
03/29-04 86 61 39 29 86   N  8 13 2 1   N 18  2453 NNW 21 45305  F
03/29-05 86 61 39 29 83   N  8 13 2 1   N 21  2388 NNW 22 45047  F
03/29-06 82 42 19 29 81 NNW  8 13 2 1   N 22  2324 NNW 22 44738  F
03/29-07 80 42 19 30 79 NNW  8 13 2 1   N 24  2392 NNW 22 44518  F
03/29-08 79 42 19 30 80 NNW  8 13 2 1   N 26  2461 NNW 21 44210  F
03/29-09 77 36 14 31 78 NNW  8 13 2 1 NNE 28  2529 NNW 20 43814  F
03/29-10 62 36 14 35 66   N  8 14 2 1 NNE 29  3051 NNW 18 48205  F
03/29-11 62 36 14 35 65   N  9 14 2 1 NNE 29  3574   N 16 51002  F
03/29-12 53 24  5 36 61   N  9 15 2 1 NNE 29  4096   N 15 52207  F
03/29-13 52 24  5 38 57   N  9 15 2 1 NNE 29  4353   N 15 55705  F
03/29-14 52 24  5 38 58   N  9 15 2 1 NNE 28  4610   N 15 59229  F
03/29-15 46 24  5 38 59   N  9 15 2 1 NNE 28  4867   N 15 62778   G
03/29-16 42 24  5 39 57   N  9 14 2 1 NNE 28  4591   N 15 58575  F
03/29-17 37 24  5 39 56   N  8 14 3 1   N 26  4315 NNW 15 54448  F
03/29-18 31  8  2 39 55   N  8 13 3 1   N 26  4039 NNW 14 50400  F
03/29-19 25  8  2 36 60   N  7  7 3 1   N 26  3487 NNW 13 38698 P
03/29-20 25  8  2 36 58 NNW  7  7 2 1   N 26  2934 NNW 12 28520 P
03/29-21 20  3  1 33 64 NNW  6  6 2 1   N 25  2382   N  9 19866 P
03/29-22 18  3  1 32 65 NNW  5  5 2 1   N 25  2094 NNW  9 16975 P
03/29-23 18  3  1 32 64  NW  5  5 2 1   N 25  1806  NW  9 14219 P
03/30-00 15  5  1 31 66  NW  5  5 2 1   N 25  1519  NW  9 11598 P
03/30-01 15  5  1 28 74 WNW  5  5 2 1   N 23  1321  NW 10 12292 P
03/30-02 15  5  1 28 73   W  5  5 2 1   N 21  1124 WNW 13 12329 P
03/30-03 15  3  1 28 72   W  6  6 2 1   N 18   927 WNW 15 11709 P
03/30-04 16  3  1 28 70   W  7  7 2 1   N 17   864   W 14 10259 P
03/30-05 16  3  1 28 69   W  8  8 2 1   N 15   802   W 13  8905 P
03/30-06 18  1  0 28 69   W  8 13 2 1   N 13   739   W 12  7646 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...Weston Toll
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705278.0/BOU



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