Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 111303
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Nantucket Land Bank Smooth Hummocks...Nantucket Land Bank
National Weather Service Taunton MA
903 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over Quebec provides cooler weather today. Mainly
dry weather across Nantucket, with the possibility of a few
sprinkles late this afternoon and evening.

Minimum relative humidities today will range from 70 to 80
percent.

OUTLOOK...Thursday through Sunday...

Warmer and more humid weather returns this weekend as the high
pressure over southeast Canada moves offshore. Spotty showers may
dot the area this weekend, but many hours of dry weather are still
expected. A frontal passage may bring more widespread showers Sun
night into Mon. Behind this front, a drying and cooling trend is
likely.

.REST OF TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (10300-31300 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......20, decreasing to 6.0 early, then decreasing to
                    3.0 early in the afternoon, increasing to 4.0
                    early in the afternoon, increasing to 6.0,
                    increasing to 11 late.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Dewpoint............58.
LVORI...............4.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max apparent temp...66.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1600 ft AGL.
ADI.................17, increasing to 38.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 22 mph.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  74  76  72  69  66  67  68  69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  64  63  65  66  66  66  66  65
Dewpoint........60  59  59  59  59  59  58  57  56
RH..............87  84  87  81  78  78  75  73  73
Heat index (F)..64  64  63  65  66  66  66  66  65
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   12  13  13  14  14  15  15
20 FT wind gust.13  14  16  17  18  20  20  20  21
Surface wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.8   9   12  13  13  14  14  15  15
Surface wnd gst.13  14  16  17  18  20  20  20  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  17  18  18  18  18  20  21  22
LVORI...........5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............12  21  27  28  29  30  32  35  38
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100010  15  20  21  22  23  26  29  31
Ceiling (kft)...20  20  6.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 11  11

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (30300-74200 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......13, decreasing to 10 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 8.0 early, decreasing to 4.5 in
                    the late evening and early morning, increasing
                    to 6.0, increasing to 7.0 late, increasing to
                    8.0.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Dewpoint............53, decreasing to 50 late.
LVORI...............4.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 16 to 20 mph.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain in the evening.
Max apparent temp...62.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 16 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3200 ft AGL.
ADI.................28, increasing to 35 late.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northeast 21 to 26 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72  76  79  82  84  86  83  80  77  77  76  75
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  62  60  59  58  58  57  57  56  56  56  55
Dewpoint........55  55  54  53  53  52  51  51  50  50  50  50
RH..............75  78  81  80  83  80  80  80  80  80  80  83
Heat index (F)..63  62  60  59  58  58  57  57  56  56  56  55
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..16  16  17  17  18  18  18  20  20  20  18  18
20 FT wind gust.22  22  23  23  24  24  25  25  25  25  25  24
Surface wnd dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.16  16  17  17  18  18  18  20  20  20  18  18
Surface wnd gst.22  22  23  23  24  24  25  25  25  25  25  24
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.22  21  21  22  22  23  23  24  24  25  25  26
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI.............24  24  23  24  30  31  31  32  32  33  34  36
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100031  31  30  36  42  48  52  56  60  65  69  74
Ceiling (kft)...13  10  8.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

.THURSDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (66400 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......9.0, increasing to 10 through early afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 9.0 early in the afternoon,
                    decreasing to 7.0 early in the afternoon,
                    increasing to 8.0, increasing to 9.0 late,
                    increasing to 10.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Dewpoint............48.
LVORI...............3.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 20 to 23 mph.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent).
Max apparent temp...59.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 20 to 23 mph.
Mixing height.......3000-3300 ft AGL.
ADI.................35, increasing to 65 in the morning, then
                    increasing to 68 early, decreasing to 62 late.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northeast 25 to 29 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........72     64     54     43     32     25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............54     55     57     59     59     59
Dewpoint........50     49     48     48     47     47
RH..............86     80     72     67     64     64
Heat index (F)..54     55     57     59     59     59
20 ft wind......NE 20  NE 21  NE 21  NE 22  NE 23  NE 21
20 ft wind gust.25     29     28     30     31     28
Surface wind....NE 20  NE 21  NE 21  NE 22  NE 23  NE 21
Surface wnd gst.25     29     28     30     31     28
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   3100   3200   3200   3200   3100
Transport wind..NE 26  NE 25  NE 28  NE 28  NE 26  NE 25
LVORI...........4      3      3      1      1      1
ADI.............35     62     68     70     65     62
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100072     69     77     79     74     69
Ceiling (kft)...9.0    10     11     10     7.0    9.0

$$
Forecaster...Belk
Requested by...T. Parker Schuerman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717100.0/BOX
.EMAIL Tschuerman@nantucketlandbank.org



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