Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 230939
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 210 Deerhead...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
439 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will drop down from the north late today,
before retreating back to the north as a warm front late
tonight and Friday. Ahead of this boundary, the very warm
and rather moist air will produce scattered afternoon
showers and even a few thunderstorms across the region today.
The precipitation will gradually dissipate early tonight
followed by patchy fog late tonight and early Friday.

Strengthening low pressure will move northeast across
the Upper Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday.
southerly winds will freshen to 10 to 15 mph by the late
morning hours Friday, with gusts around 20 mph.

The cold front trailing south from this low will bring
a few rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers later
Friday night, and perhaps even a few strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms with gusty westerly winds and small
hail during the day Saturday.

Gusty west wind of 35 to 45 mph will develop in the wake
of the front Saturday into Saturday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Scattered showers and a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
                    late.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southwest 5
                    to 6 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3000 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 10 mph...increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph early in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  81  77  74  71  78  85  93  90
Weather cov.....PTY             SCT SCT SCT LKY LKY
Weather type....FOG             RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT
Temp............52  53  55  57  60  62  63  64  64
RH..............83  83  80  77  72  67  67  65  65
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.5   10      5   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   2   5   8   10  13  14  14  13

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and scattered thunderstorms in the
                    evening...then isolated showers after midnight.
                    Patchy fog after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 12 mph.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86  79  81  81  82  83  84  85  86  86  86  86
Weather cov.....LKY SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF
Tstm cov........SCT ISO ISO ISO
Temp............61  59  58  56  55  54  55  53  52  51  51  50
RH..............72  78  80  86  90  93  90  96  96  100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  S   S   SE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  9   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. A slight chance of showers.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  87  78  78  84  78  78  73  77  77  55  77
Weather cov.....ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RNF RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  51  54  56  58  60  62  64  66  67  66  65
RH..............100 93  86  83  80  75  72  70  65  63  65  65
20 FT wind dir..NE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  10  10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   6   8   12  15  18  20  20  20  18

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Jonathan Weaver
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702650.0/CTP
.EMAIL jonweaver@pa.gov



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