Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 051238
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR DCNR FIELD TOUR...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0000  ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MIN RH/S ABOVE 50 PERCENT. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH/S DROPPING TO 30-40 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
FROM THE NW BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO
                    10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 16
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME ()          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............99  99  91  91  91  91  91  91  91  91  91  91
WEATHER COV.........PTY PTY                         CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........DZF DZF                         RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................45  45  45  47  49  51  53  54  55  55  55  55
RH..................93  93  93  86  80  74  69  66  64  64  64  64
SURFACE WND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
SURFACE WND SPD.....3   3   5   6   7   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
SURFACE WND GST.....5   5       10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.0 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   7   8   9   9   10  12  14  15  16  16  16
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1700 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME ()          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............91  91  95  95  95  95  95  95  95  95  95  95
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54  53  52  51  50  50  49  48  47  47  47  47
RH..................66  69  74  74  77  77  80  83  86  86  86  86
SURFACE WND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
SURFACE WND SPD.....10  9   9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   8
SURFACE WND GST.....15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.0 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....17  18  18  16  14  12  12  12  12  12  10  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5300 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2300-3300 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME ()          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............95  95  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46  46  46  48  50  51  52  53  54  54  54  54
RH..................89  86  86  80  77  74  74  71  71  71  71  71
SURFACE WND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
SURFACE WND SPD.....8   8   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
SURFACE WND GST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.5 0.8 2.0 3.5 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.3 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  12  13  16  20  23  23  22  21  21  20  18
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...BRLAN L PLUME
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 1600750.0/CTP


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