Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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436
FNUS73 KDLH 291014
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Mud Goose Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
514 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 29.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast...
please call the National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure this morning is providing the burn location with
clear skies and calm wind. This high pressure will result in
relatively light wind speeds this morning, with unreliable wind
direction. However, models suggest most the wind direction will
become more reliable late this morning, somewhere from southeast
to northeast, and then fairly reliably be around 5 mph from the
north or north-northeast by early this afternoon. Expect a warmer
and drier day than previous days. I leaned a little on the dry
side among the various models, given the sun and low dew points,
so it is possible the humidity may only dip into lower 30 percent
range. Smoke dispersion will be limited near the burn time because
of the lack of wind flow aloft, but should improve to good by the
middle afternoon with the increasing depth of the mixing layer
and increasing transport winds.

Tonight will be cold again with light wind speeds and limited
humidity recovery because of the dry environment. Sunday looks a
bit cooler and slightly more humid, with increasing cloud cover
from the south. Rain will move into the area late in the day and
Sunday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny...becoming mostly sunny this afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds this morning...becoming
                    light and easterly around 10 am...becoming north
                    or north-northeast around 5 mph by early this
                    afternoon...then shifting to the northeast in the
                    late afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL around 10 am...increasing to 3400 ft
                    AGL by the 11 am burn time...increasing to 5900 ft
                    AGL by 1 pm...and increasing to 6200 ft AGL by the
                    late afternoon.
Transport winds.....Light and variable direction early this morning,
                    becoming east-northeast around 3 to 5 mph by
                    the 11 am burn time...then becoming north-northeast
                    around 5 mph by 1 pm...then becoming 5 to 10 mph
                    by the middle of the afternoon...and then becoming
                    northeast at nearly 10 mph by the late afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10000 knot-ft) by around 10 am...
                    increasing to fair (16500 knot-ft) by the
                    proposed burn time around 11 am...and gradually
                    increasing to good (45600 knot-ft) by the late
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  49  51  52  53  54  55  55
RH..............47  37  33  31  30  29  29  29
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   NE  NNE NNE NNE NNE NE
20 FT wind spd..0   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.3       6   6   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 4.0 4.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.9
Transp wind dir.S   SE  NE  N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.0   0   5   5   6   7   8   10
SDspl kt-ft/10004   9   16  24  30  35  40  46

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29500-49300 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor to poor (800-12700 knot-ft) in the late
                    evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54     49     41     37     34     32
RH..............32     46     65     69     69     72
20 ft wind......NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 0
20 ft wind gust.7      6                           3
Mix hgt (ft)....5600   3600   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..NE 10  NE 10  E 5    SE 5   SE 5   E 5
SDspl kt-ft/100049     30     1      1      1      1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain late in
                    the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph increasing to around 10
                    mph with gusts to around 17 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1000-14400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (49200-62900 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Temp............30     34     42     48     52     52
RH..............76     66     49     38     36     41
20 ft wind......E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 10   E 10
20 ft wind gust.       8      12     15     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....300    900    2100   3100   3800   4300
Transport wind..E 5    E 10   E 15   E 15   E 15   E 15
SDspl kt-ft/10001      6      25     41     53     63

$$
Forecaster...Geoff
Requested by...Michael Mackey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707968.1/DLH
.EMAIL mmackey@fs.fed.us,acook@fs.fed.us



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