Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FNUS73 KDMX 201637
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Hickory Grove Park...Story County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1037 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

There is a very high fire danger both today and Tuesday with
gusty winds along with nearly cured fuels leading to increased
potential for rapid fire growth. The Grassland Fire Danger Index
is forecast to be very high across most of central Iowa today and
again on Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 17 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0   0   14  26  56  77  67
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............49  52  54  55  55  54  52
RH..............50  46  43  40  40  40  43
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..17  18  20  20  18  18  17
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..24  25  26  26  25  24  22
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 14 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........52     39     39     60     75     74
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............49     44     42     39     37     35
RH..............48     62     67     76     79     82
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 9   SW 8   SW 8   W 7    NW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   500    300    300    300    400
MIXNG WIND......SW 20  SW 14  SW 10  W 8    W 7    NW 10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 36.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 14 to 23 mph. Gusts up to 35
                    mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2700-3500 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 25 mph increasing to 24 to 29
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........56        28        16        5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............34        34        33        34
RH..............78        64        56        49
20 FT WIND......NW 14G20  NW 21G30  NW 23G35  NW 21G30
MIX HGT (FT)....700       2700      3300      3500
MIXNG WIND......NW 17     NW 28     NW 28     NW 25
HAINES INDEX....4         4         3         4

$$
Forecaster...Boksa
Requested by...Dusitn Horne
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719031.0/DMX
.EMAIL dhorne@storycountyiowa.gov



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