Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 231510
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Teacher...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
910 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 MDT on June 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft will remain over Arizona and New Mexico
this weekend. Daytime max temperatures will again be near record
levels today. Isolated storms are possible during the PM hours
today mostly over the area mountains. A backdoor cool front from
will start to push in from the east beginning late Friday will
bring cooler air and a moisture increase to the region this
evening into Saturday. Temperatures will drop some 10 to 15
degrees back to normal for the weekend and all of next week as
east winds and increased moisture bring substantial storm chances
to the region for the weekend well into next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). ISOLATED AFTN
                    EVENING BUILDUP/TSTM
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....88-89.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL increasing to 16800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good to excellent (131400-172000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 PM
Sky (%).........37
Weather cov.....NONE
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10
LAL.............1
Temp............87
RH..............11
20 ft wind......NW 10
20 ft wind gust.20
Mix hgt (ft)....16800
Transport wind..NW 9
Haines index....6
Vent Rate.......EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....57-58.
Max humidity........57-59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......14400 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (114800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2300 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........35     35     35     43     43     43
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............85     75     68     65     62     60
RH..............11     17     24     31     40     47
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 7   NW 7   NE 10  E 12   SE 12
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....14400  14400  14400  600    600    600
Transport wind..NW 9   NW 12  NW 9   N 5    E 3    E 5
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........29-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8800 ft AGL increasing to 11600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 4 mph shifting to the southwest
                    8 to 9 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (41300-70300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........50        50        67        67
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        40        40
LAL.............2         2         4         4
Temp............58        68        75        77
RH..............56        42        34        31
20 FT wind......SE 8G15   S 7G15    S 11G20   SW 12G25
Mix hgt (ft)....8800      8800      11600     11600
Transport wind..E 6       SE 2      W 6       W 9
Haines index....5         5         4         4
Vent Rate.......FAIR      FAIR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710914.14/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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