Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 231842
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Negrito Fire Base RX...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1140 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on April 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Today will be the last day with relatively light winds...as an active weather
pattern brings windy conditions back to the burn site starting Monday.
Gusty west-southwest winds will result in critical fire conditions Monday
through most of next week.  An upper level trough will deepen over the western
states and help to generate these winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL increasing to 9100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 27 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (63200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (219100 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      5      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............68     66     68
RH..............20     20     17
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 14  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.25     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....9100   9100   9100
Transport wind..SW 18  SW 23  SW 28
Haines index....3      4      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 26 to 27 mph decreasing to 8 to 9 mph
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (201500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1900 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      3      3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     55     49     44     44     41
RH..............18     25     30     35     33     37
20 ft wind......SW 15  SW 10  SW 7   W 6    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.30     20     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....8100   8100   8100   300    300    300
Transport wind..SW 29  SW 16  SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 7
Haines index....4      5      5      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 11 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph shifting to the west 21 to 22 mph
                    with gusts to around 45 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL increasing to 7200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 41 to 42 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (125700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (250200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         5         5         5
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        52        68        68
RH..............40        22        12        11
20 FT wind......SW 6G15   SW 11G20  W 16G30   SW 20G40
Mix hgt (ft)....4700      4700      7200      7200
Transport wind..SW 8      W 22      SW 33     W 39
Haines index....4         3         5         5
Vent Rate.......VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...Arnold Lopez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707593.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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