Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FNUS72 KFFC 241706
FWSFFC

Spot Forecast for 19N/21C/21X...USFWS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1206 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Main weather impact this weekend will be a cold frontal passage
early Saturday. A slight chance for light rain and/or a rumble of
thunder accompanying the front will likely occur before 10am on
Saturday at the burn location. After frontal passage...conditions
will clear and dry rapidly. Winds will likely remain somewhat
elevated out of the northwest during the late morning through
the evening hours on Saturday. With rapidly drying conditions on
Saturday...RH values will likely drop to between 20-25 percent
Saturday afternoon amidst NW winds between 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 20mph. Will monitor conditions for fire danger statement for
Saturday given that fuels will likely remain dry.

Fog potential: Areas of fog are likely early Saturday morning
given moist airmass (similar conditions to this morning) ahead of
the cold front. Patchy dense fog is possible with some minor
visibility reductions...especially in lower-lying areas...but do
not expect it to be widespread. Fog should burn off around 9-10am
Saturday morning as front passes.

Confidence is high that conditions will not be conducive to fog
development Sunday morning given very dry post-frontal airmass.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-60 percent) around 10am...then becoming
                    sunny (10-20 percent) through the afternoon. Areas of fog early in
                    the morning (should burn off by 10am). A slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms between 10am and noon (15 percent).
CWR.................15 percent 10am through noon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Transport winds.....West to Northwest 15 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3900-38100 knot-ft)...increasing
                    to good to excellent (55500-81500 knot-ft) late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......200-900 ft AGL before 10am...increasing to 2500 ft AGL
                    between 10am and noon...increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........54     22     11     7
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............16      8      5      3
Temp............63     66     68     69
RH..............68     41     28     23
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   2400   4500   4000
Transport wind..W 17   W 21   NW 22  NW 18
SDspl kt-ft/100038     72     81     66

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL early in the evening...decreasing to
                    between 2000-1500 ft AGL overnight.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      3      1      1      1      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............62     50     46     42     36     34
RH..............28     42     48     54     67     68
20 ft wind......W 12   NW 9   NW 8   NW 8   NW 7   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   4000   3000   3000   2000   1300

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    morning...becoming light after noon...then
                    shifting SW late afternoon.
Transport winds.....NW between 5 and 10 mph..becoming light from the
                    N/NE late morning through afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL around sunrise...increasing to between
                    1000-1500 ft AGL mid morning into early afternoon...
                    peaking between 2200-3000ft AGL mid afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........1      2      2      2      3      3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............33     35     48     56     61     63
RH..............69     61     34     24     20     20
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 5   NW 3   NW 2   NW 2   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.10     10     5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....700    900    1300   1700   2000   2500
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 6   N 5    N 5    NE 3   NE 3


$$
Forecaster...Kovacik
Requested by...John Mason
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702818.0/FFC



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