Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FNUS74 KFWD 241347
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Clear Lake Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
847 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy conditions and light rain will continue through late
morning before skies clear. Much drier air will move into the fire
location with RH values falling into the 20s by noon and into the
teens during the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will be on the
increase as they gradually turn from southerly to southwesterly,
and eventually around to the west this evening. Sustained wind
speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph can be expected
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect until this evening
which includes the fire location. Mixing heights will increase
rapidly after skies clear by late morning, reaching around 8 kft
by midday and peaking around 11 kft by late afternoon.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 23 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 21 to 24 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to
                    40 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500-2400 ft AGL increasing to
                    9600-11000 ft AGL by late afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 28 to 35 mph increasing to 39 to
                    48 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62  50  38  26  14  17  20  23  26
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Temp............64  67  70  74  77  80  82  82  81
RH..............70  63  49  35  28  22  18  16  17
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  15  17  21  22  23  24  23  21
20 FT wind gust.25  25  30  30  35  35  40  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.4 3.8 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.6 11  11
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.31  31  35  39  44  46  48  48  47
Haines index....5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......10700-10800 ft AGL decreasing to 200-700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 35 to 44 mph becoming northwest 22 to
                    29 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  32  30  28  25  23  21  18  16  14  12  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............79  76  73  70  67  64  63  61  59  57  54  52
RH..............19  22  25  29  33  37  39  42  47  51  59  63
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..20  16  15  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.30  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...11  11  7.3 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.44  40  35  29  25  24  25  26  26  25  24  22
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......100-2000 ft AGL increasing to 5100-5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   7   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  50  51  53  56  59  62  65  68  70  71  72
RH..............66  66  66  64  59  53  48  43  39  35  34  33
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   8   9   10  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  20  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.18  17  18  22  23  22  20  17  17  17  17  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Stalley
Requested by...Jerry Anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704449.8/FWD
.EMAIL jerryanderson@fs.fed.us


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