Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS73 KJKL 211513
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Apple Flat South IG...USDA FS
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today
as moisture increases from the west. However, portions of far
eastern Kentucky including the Big Sandy region and locales
near the Virginia state line may see minimum relative humidities
fall into the low-mid 30s this afternoon. Rain showers will move
through eastern Kentucky later this afternoon into Wednesday with
additional chances Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny early then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Dewpoint............43 increasing to 47 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to 3700-5000
                    ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor /5500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent
                    (54100-60700 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................8 increasing to 53.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  32  40  50  64  71  78  84
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............61  64  65  66  68  68  67  65
Dewpoint........42  43  45  46  47  48  48  48
RH..............49  46  48  48  47  49  50  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   5   5   4   3   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.6 3.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  13  14  15  15  14  13  13
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  21  37  44  44  41  39  53
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10006   17  44  61  60  58  55  54

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Isolated rain showers early in the
                    evening, then Numerous rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............49.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2700-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-2200 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 14 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (4300-51900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........89     96     99     98     97     96
Weather cov.....ISOLTD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).20     40     60     70     70     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............62     57     56     54     53     52
Dewpoint........48     48     49     50     50     50
RH..............60     72     77     86     89     93
20 ft wind......S 2    SE 2   E 2    SE 2   SE 2   S 2
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Ridgetop wind...S 5    SE 0   E 0    SE 0   SE 5   S 5
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   3700   2200   1800   1500   1100
Transport wind..S 14   S 14   S 13   S 12   SE 8   E 5
LVORI...........3      3      4      5      6      6
ADI.............6      6      6      5      4      2
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100052     45     24     18     11     4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers,
                    then scattered rain showers in the late
                    morning. Isolated rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 65.
RH..................Min 66 percent.
Dewpoint............52.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......800-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to poor (5000-6700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........97        94        85        75
Weather cov.....NUMRUS    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).60        50        30        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............51        53        59        64
Dewpoint........51        51        52        54
RH..............100       93        78        70
20 FT wind......S 2G5     S 2G5     S 2G5     S 2G5
Ridgetop wind...S 5       S 5       S 5       S 5
Mix hgt (ft)....900       900       1200      1600
Transport wind..E 7       SE 8      S 6       SW 5
LVORI...........8         6         4         3
ADI.............6         8         8         9
Haines index....3         3         3         3
VRate kt-ft/10005         6         5         6

$$
Forecaster...GREIF
Requested by...Leif Meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702558.0/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us



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