Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 271220
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for SR2...USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will shift offshore today and remain in control through Wednesday.
Expect ENE 5 to 10 knots during the morning today, becoming SE by this afternoon. Isolated
shower late tonight. A cold front will cross the region Thursday morning.
High pressure will build in behind the front through next weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......Max 4400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 66240 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Max 62.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.34 to 30.40 inHg.

TIME (EST)         8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............14  19  21  26  37  43  47  56  61  64
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............39  47  55  60  64  67  69  69  69  68
RH.................85  68  55  47  41  37  36  39  40  45
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd.....4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust....5       10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)......0.9 1.5 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.1
Transp wind dir....E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd....9   13  14  14  14  14  14  15  14  10
LVORI..............4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI................9   23  35  48  55  59  62  47  45  29
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..8   19  29  40  50  61  61  66  61  32
Stability class....F   F   F   F   B   B   B   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph through the night.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1035 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Min 1.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.29 to 30.36 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............70  74  75  77  79  80  82  83  80  76  74  75
Weather cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.......    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............66  63  62  61  60  60  59  58  58  57  57  56
RH.................52  62  67  75  81  81  83  86  90  93  96  100
20 FT wind dir.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....4   3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd....7   3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   6   6   5
LVORI..............2   3   3   4   5   4   5   5   6   6   8   9
ADI................4   2   1   3   4   4   5   5   4   4   4   3
Haines index.......4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..12  1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
Stability class....B   B   B   B   C   C   D   D   D   E   E   E

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers early
                    in the morning...then a chance of showers and a
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph early in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Max 3200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph...becoming southwest 15 to 20
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 59454 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 73.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.20 to 30.33 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............79     78     67     66     66     66
Weather cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp...............56     59     67     71     74     74
RH.................100    96     81     68     64     66
20 ft wind.........S 4    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust....5             15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft).......300    700    1600   2700   3000   2500
Transport wind.....S 5    S 8    S 15   S 17   S 20   SW 20
LVORI..............9      7      3      1      1      1
ADI................4      6      30     60     73     53
Haines index.......3      3      3      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      6      23     46     59     50
Stability class....F      E      E      C      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Melendez
Requested by...John Mangus
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702968.0/MHX
.EMAIL john.mangus@usmc.mil


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