Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 271340
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for midco 4...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Paducah KY
740 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Any rain chances will be negligible today. However, the persistent
southerly flow of winds will keep relative humidity values elevated
throughout the day. Rain chances will gradually increase tonight, then
again Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Considerable cloud cover
may slow evaporation rates.

The 1700 foot Smoke Management Threshold will not be reached until
around 10 am CST this morning, which may delay the ignition time.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................87 percent at ignition...Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds east at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-3400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to 16 to 17 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  45  49  52  55  58  59  60  60  59
RH..............87  83  78  71  66  63  59  58  60  61
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   5   5   6   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.    5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   9   12  14  16  17  17  16
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............58     56     55     55     56     56
RH..............66     74     83     89     89     92
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      7      7      7      6      6
20 FT wind gust.                     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1500   1700   1600   1600   1500
Transp wind dir.SE     S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.16     20     21     21     21     23
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1700-3600 ft AGL increasing to 2200-4000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 28 to 37 mph shifting to the south
                    around 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............0      0      0      50     50     50
Temp............56     59     64     70     74     73
RH..............95     94     83     69     62     63
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      7      9      12     12     12
20 FT wind gust.              10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   2900   3600   3500   4000   3200
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.28     33     37     35     35     29
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Preston Mabry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702984.0/PAH
.EMAIL preston.mabry@mdc.mo.gov



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