Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 291737
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT B6-2...ILLINOIS INTERAGENCY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1225 CDT ON AUGUST 29.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS UPDATE INCLUDES UPDATED WIND AND FIRE WEATHER PARAMETER INFORMATION
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN
AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST DATA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE REQUIRED FIVE MPH WINDS SPEEDS...THIS MAY BE
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A CORRESPONDING
REDUCTION IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS MIXING INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INCREASING CHANCES OF WET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BUT LOOK FOR THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM.
TEMPERATURE.........87 AT IGNITION...MAX 90.
RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9900-11800
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............87  87  87  88  88  87
RH..............55  52  50  51  53  55
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  20  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...9.9 11  11  11  12  12
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  18  20  21  22  23
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 72.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5
                    MPH AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 51 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 7
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 22 TO 29 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............86     80     77     75     74     73
RH..............57     69     76     82     84     87
20 FT WIND......S 5    SW 4   S 3    S 3    S 3    S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....10900  4000   200    1000   700    800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21  S 7    S 0    S 0    SW 22  SW 29
CWR.............0      0      0      50     50     50
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85.
RH..................MIN 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4400 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............73        80        83        84
RH..............87        72        70        67
20 FT WIND......S 4G5     SW 5G10   SW 5G10   S 6G10
MIX HGT (FT)....1300      3000      4400      3700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 26     SW 25     SW 25     SW 28
CWR.............60        60        60        60
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...DAVID JONES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140829.UNITB.02/PAH




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