Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 280312
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Spot Forecast for Huff Hollow...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1112 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weak high pressure builds overhead in the morning, then front that
came through this evening will start to head north as a warm front
Friday afternoon, though threat of rain is very low. However,
mixing heights are going to increase despite lack of mixing winds.
But humidity levels will stay elevated given recent rains.

Saturday will be warmer than Friday, but not by much. Getting more
into scenario for isolated showers and storms to fire near the ridge
lines in the afternoon. Still somewhat humid as well. Shower and storm
chances increase by Monday with a strong cold front moving in.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    8 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL...increasing to 4800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 2 to 9 mph...becoming south 10 to 15
                    mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4...increasing to 58.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  23  19  15  12  11  14  18  21  17  12  9
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Temp............56  57  59  63  67  71  73  74  76  78  79  80
RH..............90  87  80  72  64  57  54  51  49  47  46  45
20 FT wind dir..W   S   SW  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   2   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.                5   10  10  15  15  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8
Mixng wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..3   2   3   6   9   12  12  12  10  12  14  15
LVORI...........6   6   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............1   5   6   13  26  35  39  40  40  46  54  61
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph with gusts up to 20
                    mph until early morning...becoming light and
                    variable.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL...decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing winds........South 9 to 17 mph...decreasing to 5 to 7 mph
                    after midnight.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................60...decreasing to 2.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........11     16     16     19     29     29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     0      10     0
Temp............78     73     69     66     64     62
RH..............47     56     64     73     80     85
20 ft wind......S 7    S 7    SE 6   S 6    SW 5   SW 4
20 ft wind gust.20     15     10     10     10     5
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   2200   1700   1200   700    400
Mixing wind......S 16   S 17   S 16   S 13   S 7    S 5
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      4      5
ADI.............60     12     11     8      4      2
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late in the morning. A slight chance
                    of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent...increasing to 20 percent in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southwest 5
                    to 9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL...increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 3 to 10 mph...increasing to 13 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................5...increasing to 48.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........29     29     45     51     51     52
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     20     20     20
Temp............59     61     68     73     76     79
RH..............94     93     77     63     52     47
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   SW 6   SW 9   SW 9   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    900    1800   3000   3700
Mixing wind......S 3    S 3    SW 7   SW 10  SW 14  SW 14
LVORI...........8      6      4      2      1      1
ADI.............2      4      7      25     45     51
Haines index....5      6      6      6      6      5

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...H. Sutherland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707907.0/RNK



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