Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 301613
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1212 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALSO MOVED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
ALSO OCCURRED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS COOLER AIR
FILTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
:
24 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.05 TO 0.
30 INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM NIL UP TO 0.15 INCH.
:
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. A
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD REACH FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM NIL UP TO 0.25 TO 0.40 INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
VERY MINOR RISES OCCURRED ON SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS IN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL.  MOST LOCATIONS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING
. THE RIVERS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION CONTINUE TO RECEDE
THIS THURSDAY MORNING.
:
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MINOR
RISES ALONG SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. THE
RIVERS IN THE REST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE THAT OCCURRED IN LATE OCTOBER ARE
GENERALLY IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND.  LAST WEEK`S RAINFALL AND
INCREASED RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS, SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MAINE.  ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN NEW
YORK RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ALISON MACNEIL




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