Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 021638
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO
NEAR CHICAGO IN ILLINOIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...
ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING AND MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP TODAY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...THE REAL ACTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
:
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AOA 1.50 INCHES...THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR RAINFALL. COMBINE THIS WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH INTERIOR NEW YORK
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 - 1.00 INCH RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH POINT RAINFALLS WELL OVER AN INCH EXPECTED.
:
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRIER BUT STILL
RATHER HOT WEATHER FOR SEPTEMBER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
MINOR RIVER RISES OF LESS THAN A FOOT WERE SEEN ON AREA RIVERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POWER GENERATION...
RESERVOIR REGULATION AND TIDAL VARIATION WERE ALSO OBSERVED.
:
MINOR ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RAINFALL FORECAST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
GREATER THAN FORECAST RISES...ESPECIALLY IN FLASHY HEADWATER AND
URBANIZED RIVER BASINS.
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND
AND NEW YORK ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FLOWS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ARE
RUNNING BELOW TO MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS. RIVER FLOWS
ARE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE MANY GAUGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
PASSING FLOWS IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD
FOR SEPTEMBER 2ND.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEFF OUELLET




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