Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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612
FZAK80 PAFC 292241
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKDT FRIDAY 29 JULY 2016

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 3 AUGUST 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

SYNOPSIS...A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL SHIFT OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA LATE MONDAY... AND CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

ICE COVERED.

-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR ICY CAPE TO 71.2N 165.2W TO
72.3N 166.6W TO 71.2N 168.9W TO 71.3N 173.5W TO THE RUSSIAN COAST
NEAR 67.2N 174.2W. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS UP TO 60 NM BEYOND THE BARRIER ISLANDS...LARGE SEA ICE FLOES
HAVE DETERIORATED LEAVING BEHIND HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF BRASH SEA
ICE THAT IS DRIFTING WITH THE LOCAL CURRENTS AND WINDS AT THIS TIME.
THIS BRASH SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MELT AND
DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY IN CONCENTRATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BARRIER ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
ICE CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN FROM 1 TO 6 TENTHS ALONG THE ALASKA COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF OPEN WATER TO 2 TENTHS
CONCENTRATION.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF
REMAINING SEA ICE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF BRASH
SEA ICE HAVE SHIFTED IN NEAR THE COASTLINE BY BARROW OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OWING TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. THE MAIN SEA ICE PACK IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT SEA ICE IN CONCENTRATIONS GREATER THAN 5 TENTHS
MAY REMAIN IN THE NEAR SHORE AND NAVIGATIONAL WATERS OFFSHORE FROM
BARROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS THE
ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT WILL ASSIST IN FLUSHING SEA ICE TO THE
NORTHEAST PAST POINT BARROW. MARINERS MAY CONSIDER KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON THE SEA ICE CONDITIONS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THEY COULD
CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING THIS TIME. SEA ICE MAY TEMPORARILY GROUND IN
THE SHALLOWS NEAR BARROW BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AT
THIS TIME.

$$



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