Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 231829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED PER
SURFACE DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 26N90W
TO 20N96W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AND SHIFT SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER ON FRI AS THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRES NEAR 22.5N87W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW CENTER
COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW N ATLC BY
FRI MORNING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE OF AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE W CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W/42W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...REACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED E OF 75W PER THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5
FT ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SINK SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATE FRI...BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT...AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 23N81W
TO 22N83W TO 16N87W BY SAT MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
BY LATE FRI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION IF IT
DOES NOT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN TWO
OR THREE DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE
DATA AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE
FRONT...4-5 FT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING FROM 31N65W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A LOW PRES MAY FORM
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE SAT AND
SUN...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT AND FROM
30N60W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW PRES LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES
OF GALE FORCE WINDS REACH 10-20 PERCENT ON SAT BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 5 PERCENT. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM UNTIL GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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