Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A
1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE
NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES
REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST
SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP
OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW
DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH
OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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