Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 011750
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU
NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO NEAR
TAMPA BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL GULF WED AND THE NE GULF THU. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
AND THE GEFS DO NOT SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FASTER 12Z GFS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS
MEANS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND
THE CORRESPONDING TAFB-NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST/UPDATE THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE INVOF 22-23N IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH PEAK
10M WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. BEYOND FRI MORNING...INCREASED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE
AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 29N77W THEN
STATIONARY TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 68W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 180-240 NM SE AND S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUES TO THE E
THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLED OUT AND
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT UNTIL THEN.

BY FRI MORNING...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER BOTH WITH THE
H5 LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE ATLC...IT CARRIES A MORE NLY LOW WELL N OF THE AREA
TO THE S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAN THE 12Z MODELS. THE ECMWF
ENS MEAN IS MORE SLY WITH THE LOW...HEDGING CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS
AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE ECMWF ALSO ALLOWS MORE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON FRI THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. ITS SOLUTION APPEARS TO WEAK AND STRUNG OUT. GIVEN
THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS...THINK
A STRONGER SOLUTION IS BETTER. THE GFS IS ON THE DEEPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIKELY HAS SOME GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES
THAT ARE ENHANCING THE WIND. BLENDING THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS
PREFERRED WITH THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE PATTERN...WITH THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME MANUAL EDITS WERE
REQUIRED EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG 70W N OF 27N WHERE THE 0226Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF WIND ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF 65W BY
THU MORNING AND E OF 55W BY FRI MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT MORNING.
AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COMES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING CRITERIA N
OF 30N W OF 78W. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A 25 KT
WIND BARB IN THE AREA. FOR NOW...BLENDING THE GFS WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YIELD WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING A STRONG BREEZE HERE
AS A RESULT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY/SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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