Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
AGXX40 KNHC 291824
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF HAS
MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR TAMPA BAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...MAINLY FROM
25N-28N E OF 84W BASED ON THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. MAINLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT S ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1426 UTC ASCAT-B PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A SHIP CALL SIGN VQOG5 INDICATED NE WINDS OF 40 KT...
WHILE BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 12-13 FT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200
UTC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA AT NIGHT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W/84W WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
61W/62W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...
ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY
FRI NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1012 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N
ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30.5N79W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N81W. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW
CENTER AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENTLY...SCATTEROMETER AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 29N E OF
THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 77W. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT IN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 9 FT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLC
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 26N/27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT N AND STRENGTHEN BY FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES
MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.