Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 020536
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS TAMPA BAY TO THE EXTREME NE TX COAST WITH A
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE
GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM
THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN
180 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED
FURTHER OUTWARD AROUND THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25
KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED SE
TO OVER FL BAY WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR
CENTRAL FL AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF HAS SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THESE AREAS WILL BE
DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
FURTHER N TO A POSITION FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA
THROUGH MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NOCTURNAL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER PULSE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED ON THU NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT. THE
NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU...FRI AND SAT
NIGHTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N
ALONG 47W WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
ON SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM ROUGHLY 30N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT PULSE TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N AS WEAK
TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST IMMEDIATELY STALLING AND
WASHING OUT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA. MODERATE
E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY
EVENINGS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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