Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 191808
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 23 2014 - 12Z SAT DEC 27 2014


A STORMY PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE BULLISH RUN
TO RUN THAN THE GFS, AS WELL AS SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY. THE BIG
DAY-FOUR CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS SOLID, WITH GOOD
CROSS-MODEL SUPPORT. EVEN THE SMALL, TIGHT LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE
THAT DAY SEEMS TO HAVE LEGS. THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE PACKET--LIKELY TO
REINVIGORATE THE CYCLONIC SWIRL OVER THE BERING DAYS 7 AND 8--IS
BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/19 ECMWF AND THE 06Z/19 PARALLEL GFS,
WITH ADDITIONAL CREDIBILITY AFFORDED BY THE MOST RECENT ECENS
MEAN. A PROGRESSIVE MANUAL BLEND FROM THE 00Z/19 ECMWF TOWARD THE
ECENS MEAN FROM THE SAME DATA CYCLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
SEEMED TO HIT ALL THE IMPORTANT NOTES, WHILE MUFFLING SOME OF THE
MORE STRIDENT ONES.


CISCO

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