Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 041136
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
636 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. FORECAST AREA
REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPING
MOST OF THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN IS TO GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AS CLOSED HIGH RELOCATES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA LATER ON THURSDAY. AT
LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FAVORING
A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN RESPONSE...THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE SURGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 850 HPA WINDS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 30-35KT LATER THIS EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
STRONG EASTERLIES ARE TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ALSO FAVORING GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR PERIODS OF LIGHT CONVECTION...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS TO THEN CLUSTER ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OVER
PUERTO RICO...WHERE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.


CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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