Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 231147
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TUTT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO GUADELOUPE AND THEN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT CENTERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMAICA IS EXTENDING INTO HISPANIOLA AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CROSSING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARDS
LIE...HOWEVER...UNDER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TUTT AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
MASS. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER.

TUTT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FORM
A CLOSED LOW OVER MARTINIQUE/ST LUCIA DURING SUNDAY. PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI ARE TO PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE TUTT AND MOISTURE LIMITED. TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONSTRAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF 15N...SPARING PUERTO0 RICO
AND THE USVI FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THUS FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONSTRAINING TO
THE 05-10MM/DAY RANGE.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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