Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 011539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID 12Z MON AUG 04 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 08 2014


CONTINUE TO RELY UPON THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS--GFS
AND ECMWF INCLUDED--HAVE BEEN MARKED BY EXTREMES WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN SEVERAL KEY AREAS ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. THE 06Z/01 GEFS MEAN AND 00Z/01 ECENS MEAN ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD--AN INDICATION OF YET
ANOTHER BUCKLING OF THE FLOW. DESPITE THE REGULAR OCCURRENCE OF
THESE BUCKLINGS THIS SUMMER, THE MODELS STILL TAKE A WHILE TO GIVE
THE UNDULATIONS THEIR DUE.

THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS WET ACROSS THE NATION, WITH THE ONGOING
SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON AND THE POLAR FRONT ORGANIZING CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WITH NO REAL PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM,
ANOMALIES SHOULD BE MORE DILUTE THIS PERIOD THAN OF LATE.


CISCO

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