Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 281218
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VALID 00Z THU JAN 29 2015 - 00Z THU FEB 05 2015

THE 28/00Z ECENS/GEFS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE "IN-LINE"
WITH THE CURRENT HAWAI`I FORECASTS INTO THE DAY 5 PERIOD (3/00Z).
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 500MB-700MB LAYERED TROUGH AXIS
EXPECTED INVOF 160W---WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION AND
LOW-LEVEL WAVE ALONG 30N LATITUDE.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DO VARY CONSIDERABLY
AT THIS TIME FRAME---WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND
MIGRATION OF THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION (INVOF 164W).
ENOUGH SO, TO RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS AT/AROUND 3/00Z
AND BEYOND.

THIS RECOMMENDATION WOULD NOT ALTER THE PROGRESSION OF A NOTABLE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS---IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME (DAY 6-7). RATHER, IT WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE LAT/LONG
PLACEMENT OF ONE OR MORE SURFACE WAVES---WHICH COULD BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 140W-160W. THE 28/00Z ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN
THE SUBTROPICS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WORTH WATCHING OUT
FOR---BUT NOT WORTH WHOLESALE CHANGES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

VOJTESAK


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