Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 011202
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
801 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

VALID 00Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 00Z SUN AUG 09 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DURING
THE WEEKEND SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E MAY
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND.  SOME
DEGREE OF TRADE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  FORECAST DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN BY WED-FRI
AS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE SPREAD SEEN YESTERDAY FOR THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE GUILLERMO.  SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARISE AS WELL.  A
SOUTHERN TRACK AS REFLECTED IN LATEST ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN RUNS WOULD
LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
STATE.  ON THE OTHER HAND A NORTHERN TRACK AS IN GFS RUNS WOULD
CARRY THE GREATEST PROPORTION OF MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS.  OF COURSE EXACT TRACK WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR WIND
SPEEDS/DIRECTION AS WELL.  CONSULT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING GUILLERMO.  THE 0900
UTC ADVISORY INDICATES A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
GUILLERMO TO A POSITION A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AS OF
0600 UTC THU.  TRADE FLOW SHOULD RESUME ONCE GUILLERMO PASSES BY.

RAUSCH

$$





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