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FXUS06 KWBC 241933
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2016

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
NORTHWARD INTO ALASKA WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA, AND A WEAK, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE U.S. SOUTHEAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF THE NCEP GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
ALASKA, CANADA, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, ACCORDING TO
THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR THE PACIFIC COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE AND FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES MOST ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL STATES AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE LOCATIONS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS INCREASED AT LONGER LEAD TIMES, SUCH THAT THERE IS SOME
REDUCTION IN THE MAGNITUDE OF ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ALASKA
ALONG WITH A RELATIVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. A WEAKER RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEK 2 PERIOD OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ALASKA, CANADA, AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ACCORDING TO THE WEEK 2, OFFICIAL BLENDED, 500-HPA
HEIGHT FIELD.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, UNDER
NEAR-NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS, WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AXES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE PREDICTED
RIDGE. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO A PREDICTED WEAK 500-HPA ANOMALY PATTERN, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880505 - 19800604 - 19990601 - 19620520 - 20080526


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800603 - 19990601 - 19620522 - 19670604 - 19820530


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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