Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 061403
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM MARCH 06 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW DOMINATES CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF
35S AND WEST OF 50W...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. A TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS BRASIL TO THE NORTH OF 10S...WITH MOST
ACTIVE CLUSTERING ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER
PARA-AMAZONAS IN BRASIL-CENTRAL/NR PERU TO EASTERN ECUADOR.

THE 250 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT 49S
124W...THEN ALONG A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 46S 112W...45S 96W...52S
81W...EXITING AT 53S 62W. IT REFORMS AT 54S 53W...ALONG 58S
44W...A 142KT MAXIMUM AT 54S 30W...A 137KT MAXIMUM AT 50S
22W...48S 12W...AND 49S 02W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LEIS ALONG A 146KT
MAXIMUM AT 44S 121W...A 140KT MAXIMUM AT 40S 104W...42S 91W...48S
55W...53S 43W...45S 18W...AND A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 42S 04W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS A BRANCH WITH ENTRANCE AT 39S 78W...ALONG 42S
68W...EXITING AT 44S 57W. IT REFORMS TO THE NORTH AT 31S
67W...THEN ALONG 33S 53W...EXITING AT 37S 39W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC...
ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 130W-80W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 34S...WHILE
CENTERING ON A DEEP LOW AT 54S 104W. THIS IS PRESSING AGAINST AN
INDUCED RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF CHILE. FARTHER EAST...SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO
THE MALVINAS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM
A CLOSED LOW AT 43S 43W TO SOUTHERN BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...AN OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 58S 68W EXTENDS A FRONT
ALONG A 974 HPA LOW AT 58S 54W...A 980 HPA LOW AT 56S 49W...48S
50W...45S 65W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 45S 67W...41S 74W...A 1010 HPA
LOW AT 39S 82W...38S 87W...AND A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 91W. THIS
SUSTAINS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE. FARTHER
NORTH...AN OCCLUDED 1002 HPA LOW AT 39S 42W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG
A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 41W...34S 42W..A 1010 HPA LOW AT 32S
48W...28S 54W...SRN BRASIL TO NORTHWEST ARGENTINA. SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION WAS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$




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