Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 211959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 22 2017 - 00Z TUE OCT 24 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR DETAILS ON
THE SEVERE THREAT. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ON MONDAY, PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING SINCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST IN SOME AREAS. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS WELL, BUT SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE, HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FIRE
CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN FLORIDA, AS
EASTERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUE.


TATE


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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