Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 121910
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 12 2016

SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, EXITING THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES MONDAY TO NEXT FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

HAZARDS

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT
LAKES, MON, FEB 15.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MON, FEB 15.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
MON, FEB 15.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHEAST, THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, MON-TUE, FEB 15-FEB 16.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, TUE-WED, FEB
16-FEB 17.

HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST, TUE, FEB 16.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, WED-THU, FEB 17-FEB 18.

FLOODING POSSIBLE, OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON-TUE, FEB 15-FEB 16.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PUERTO RICO, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 15 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 19: COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY. DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY REACH 20 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS (DEG F).



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. THE GREATEST
EXPECTED IMPACT IS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY RECEIVE HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. PARTS OF MONTANA MAY EXPERIENCE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY,
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY. MANY MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM TO TRAVEL
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES OF THE CONUS TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT A NUMBER OF HAZARDS. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE STORM TRACK RESULTS IN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
OF WHICH AREAS WOULD RECEIVE SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR PARTS OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, GREAT
LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AND COLD TEMPERATURES LEAD TO A STRONG POSSIBILITY
FOR THE THREAT FOR ICING ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR SNOW IS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. THIS STORM MAY ALSO SUPPORT HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST (SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER) AND
HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF THIS AREA (21 FEET OR
GREATER).



A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TO
NEXT THURSDAY, BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE SIERRAS AND CASCADES IN
CALIFORNIA. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR GREATER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A
24-HOUR PERIOD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW.



PERSISTENT WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD COMBINED
WITH POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY ENHANCE
THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS RESULTS IN LOW
PREDICTABILITY, PRECLUDING THE DESIGNATION OF A SPECIFIC WILDFIRE RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME. INTERESTS AND RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED
FORECASTS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS USING THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) WEBSITE
(WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV).



HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS TRIGGERED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPCOMING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MAY EXACERBATE FLOOD CONDITIONS IN
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY PRONE TO FLOODING.

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 20 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 26: THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND WESTERN
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY FOR WEEK-2.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON FEBRUARY 9, THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL (D2-D4) DROUGHT ACROSS THE 50 U.S. STATES AND PUERTO RICO
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 7.06 PERCENT TO 6.57 PERCENT. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND PUERTO RICO.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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