Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   9(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  38(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

PONCE          34  1  55(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
PONCE          50  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
PONCE          64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAN JUAN       34  1  41(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN JUAN       50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34  2  27(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

SAINT CROIX    34  5  44(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  8   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 25   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

BARBUDA        34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ANTIGUA        34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

GUADELOUPE     34 48   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)

AVES           34 52   6(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
AVES           50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
AVES           64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DOMINICA       34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)

MARTINIQUE     34 61   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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