Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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596
FOPZ13 KNHC 260851
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
0900 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLA CLARION   34 32   4(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

15N 115W       34  5   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 115W       34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

15N 120W       34  1   2( 3)   8(11)  13(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 120W       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  10(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   3(30)   X(30)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   3(33)   X(33)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   4(29)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)   3(32)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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