Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 240012
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE MAY 24 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...




...UPR MIDWEST...
SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MULTIPLE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ERN NE INTO IA/MN/WRN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF VERY WEAK S/WV TROF EMBDD IN
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  DOWNSTREAM BL0CKING PATRN SUGGESTS BOTH
SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT AND A FAIRLY NARROW BUT
MODEST AXIS OF HIER PWS THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. LOCAL SHORT TERM AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
PSBL WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO APCH OR PSBLY EXCEED SOME VERY
LOCALIZED LOWER FFG VALUES...PARTICULARLY ACRS WRN IA INTO PARTS
OF SRN MN.  SEE MPD #230 VALID UNTIL 03Z FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

...ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS SWD INTO TX...
MODEL SIGNAL REMAINS UNFOCUSED FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD..TH0UGH
PREFRONTAL/DRY LINE DVLPMENT FROM WRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX COULD
LEAD TO SOME RAPIDLY DVLPG SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD THEY GAIN
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD FF
THREAT.  INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE HIGH THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES
IN THE 2 TO 3 THSD J/KG RANGE FROM SW KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX AHED
OF MID/UPR LEVEL DRY PUNCH.  UPR PATRN REMAINS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF WRN TX BUT WITH HEIGHTS FCST TO RISE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED S/WV IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE EXACTLY THE MORE ORGANIZED STORM DVLPMENT/HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL DVLP.  MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEAR THE SWRN KS/OK BORDER
OVERNIGHT ALONG WRN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEFT OVER FROM EXITING
MCV OVER SWRN MO...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE AREA TO WATCH...AS
WELL AS FARTHER E WHERE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND PW AXIS
INTERSECTS THE SAME BNDRY TOWARD ERN OK.  OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE
ACRS THIS REGION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED
SLIGHT RISK AREA

SULLIVAN


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