Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/0000 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY

ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED DAY 1 FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES--EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE
GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE INITIALLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS---AND ENHANCED UVVS
FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS---WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE AXIS
OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE DAY 1----WITH THE
LATITUDE OF THE MAX QPF AXIS A POINT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVERALL
AXIS OF THE GFS--HI RES ARW---NMM AND NSSL WRF.  WHILE THE GFS
DOES HAVE A SOUTHERN QPF AXIS FROM FAR NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHEAST
NE---NORTHWEST MO---SOUTHWEST IA---IT ALSO HAS A NORTHERN MAX FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NE INTO EAST CENTRAL SD.  THIS PORTION OF THE GFS
LOOKS SUSPICIOUS AND WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE DAY 1 QPF.

WESTERN GULF COAST

THE EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS PERIOD.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  AT THE
MOMENT---THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF TX.  DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION---BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND HI PW VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS PERIOD.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---OH
VALLEY

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA--ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DAY
1.    THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---THE MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
FRONT AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
LIMIT HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS
OF AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL RISE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF CRISTOBAL WEAKENS AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE.

NORTHWESTERN  U.S./SOUTHWEST CANADA

THE NEXT AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA--MOVING EASTWARD FROM ---THE NORTHERN
B.C./NORTHERN ALBERTA BORDER INTO ALBERTA---SASK AND MB.
SUBSEQUENTLY---THE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALSO EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE U.SS/CANADIAN BORDER.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 561949 561932 560915 557906 555901 553900 548906 544914
      538931 530954 523973 516988 511996 508003 504014 504023
      504031 506041 505049 503052 496066 495079 494087 495092
      495100 496105 497113 497117 495120 491127 490134 490140
      492150 493155 493162 493174 496180 498185 500191 502197
      501205 487208 484211 484215 490221 492225 494229 496237
      477247 490263 495269 498272 502270 508268 512263 517257
      516246 513235 511228 512220 517213 519210 523210 530213
      534209 536204 537202 537197 539183 539178 538173 538169
      539160 540151 540146 541138 543126 544121 545114 546099
      546085 544078 541073 542064 543057 544048 544040 546033
      548024 551015 553005 558980 558970 560963 560954 561949
 0.01 515669 515661 513652 509640 506634 503630 494622 491620
      488619 483620 478622 476626 472629 465625 458627 454628
      451632 450637 451640 456646 469658 471663 473672 474679
      473685 467693 457700 446707 443711 442716 440721 437723
      434723 434720 436715 439706 443697 449680 450676 449669
      447657 446649 446646 439652 430665 426662 423663 420675
      417686 416695 415701 410721 404740 397758 394767 391777
      384795 380812 373833 371837 369834 367830 362826 358825
      350830 349833 351836 352840 353865 353877 354884 356889
      358894 362896 363903 364910 364918 366924 366929 371949
      373954 378955 376961 373965 369969 364973 356979 342986
      326996 320000 314005 307011 301017 299020 297024 302028
      312031 321029 324030 322032 318034 309038 299044 297057
      291064 287073 283082 282084 287085 296085 301084 306083
      314077 322074 348061 357057 361060 364065 367068 370068
      373071 378072 379077 379080 384086 388085 391087 396095
      398100 400104 406105 409108 412106 415102 417094 416090
      417084 422077 426070 426068 429067 433070 440074 445065
      446057 447049 443036 441029 444024 453006 458999 461989
      462985 462978 463971 462966 469946 470941 471935 470926
      469911 465900 461890 458886 454883 451879 447880 441882
      437887 433889 429890 425892 422891 411890 407889 403885
      392873 389865 385859 385854 386850 389840 396819 412774
      426739 428734 429732 431733 440732 445731 450731 458729
      463728 466725 470724 473720 486709 488725 489732 491736
 0.01 491736 493751 495756 496763 498768 501767 507761 510752
      512741 512733 512728 512720 513715 513702 514689 515677
      515669
 0.01 391929 389925 389922 387920 387915 385913 384910 380911
      382915 384918 384920 386922 387927 388929 389931 391929
 0.01 328029 326028 325028 323029 325031 326030 328029
 0.01 314958 314940 314924 312918 308912 306909 300905 298905
      296902 294896 290892 285891 282891 280895 278900 275905
      275910 273918 272921 270923 265933 260944 258950 255954
      252968 250974 251978 252985 255990 258994 262997 268995
      272992 281987 293982 301977 309967 314958
 0.01 278805 277795 275790 269787 263788 255791 249792 244797
      242803 241811 240817 239825 241830 245837 250841 257841
      264840 269836 273831 275824 276817 278805
 0.25 526182 527177 527172 525166 521161 517158 512157 508162
      505169 506177 508183 510189 515193 518195 521194 523188
      526182
 0.25 529137 530130 529124 529116 529110 528105 525103 523104
      521108 518111 517119 518125 520130 522136 523139 527140
      529137
 0.25 500669 500663 499659 496652 493648 489644 484642 481644
      480646 481655 483661 486668 489672 493677 496677 498675
      500669
 0.25 457930 458926 458921 455914 452904 448896 444893 441896
      434904 426908 417906 411906 407908 404912 401917 399928
      397941 394949 389961 384969 372981 363986 359988 357991
      356998 359002 362004 367004 372006 375011 379014 384015
      391019 393025 390029 388035 392040 395042 401042 409041
      415041 419043 426052 429054 434054 433050 431043 430039
      431032 432015 432008 434004 439995 445990 448985 450979
      453967 454956 454945 456935 457930
 0.25 294960 296951 294945 292929 291926 289927 288933 285939
      281943 277946 272949 263955 260960 258966 257972 259977
      264980 270982 278981 282978 290970 294960
 0.25 269812 269804 266800 262799 259800 252801 249806 247811
      249816 252820 257823 261823 264821 268816 269812
 0.25 253812 254810 252808 251810 252812 253812 253812
 0.50 447971 446947 446935 443926 439918 434913 417914 414915
      409917 404922 402931 400940 398950 395958 392965 387972
      377983 371987 366992 366994 369999 375001 379003 380007
      383010 386011 403006 409005 410008 409012 404020 399025
      394031 394034 398036 403035 409035 417037 421037 424033
      425025 426011 425002 429994 433990 438983 442979 446976
      447971
 0.50 282968 281964 278960 274959 268959 265962 264966 263972
      266975 270976 274976 278974 281970 282968
 0.50 264811 264809 263807 261805 260807 260808 260809 260810
      262810 264811 264811
 1.00 438949 438940 436934 433928 429924 424922 417924 415929
      410932 405935 403940 402956 400966 400972 402974 405975
      410975 418977 422978 427975 428968 430961 435958 438952
      438949
 1.00 407993 407989 405987 401987 400985 398988 396990 394993
      393995 392997 392001 396000 397000 401999 403997 405996
      407993
 1.50 430952 430940 426935 421935 419936 416938 412940 408940
      405942 405952 405957 406961 410968 415970 419964 423959
      429954 430952
 2.00 423954 424949 423947 420945 417944 416945 412947 411949
      412954 412956 414960 417960 419958 421956 423954

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