Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 280138
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/28/14 0137Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13          0115                          JANKOT
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LOCATION...KANSAS...NEBRASKA...COLORADO...
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ATTN WFOS...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
UPPER LOW PIVOTING ACROSS NE UT AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS DISCUSSION REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LARGE SCALE  LIFT/INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS
DISCUSSION REGION. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERGING CONVECTION INVOF GRAHAM
COUNTY POINTS NNE INTO S CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS NE CO HAS ALSO HELPED INCREASE
LIFT OVER NE CO PROVIDING A SECOND MORE COMPACT REGION OF CONVECTION.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PLACES BEST INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL NE SE THROUGH
NE KS/ MO AND WITH SOUTHERLY 30-35 KNOT LLJ TO INCREASE NEXT FER HOURS PER
RAP/HRRR  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS N KS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.6". A MANUAL ESTIMATE FOR CONVECTION
IN N KS WITH MERGERS PROVIDES 1.2"/30 MIN RATES AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
RATES OF 1-2.5"/HR IN DEEPEST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FOR CONVECTION OVER NE CO SFC ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A SFC BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS ALSO PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM/TRAINING ALONG.
WOULD EXPECT 1-2`/HR RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER NE CO
POINTS NE.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-0600Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT MERGING CONVECTION OVER N CENTRAL KS POINTS
NNE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AS 85H LLW INCREASES
LATER TONIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE RATES OF 1-2"/HR WITH LOCALLY 2-3"/HR
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CELL MERGERS/DEEPEST CORES.  ALSO EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO INCREASE ALONG FRONT AXIS IN NE CO NE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA EVIDENT
IN LATEST IR TRENDS. RATES OF 1-2"/HR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION
AND A THREAT OF TRAINING COULD EMERGE AS SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNALS OF THIS IN THE NEAR TERM.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4232 9734 3829 9740 3850 10151 4170 10379
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