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000
FXUS61 KBGM 141916
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT...WILL END UP YIELDING TO A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY ADVANCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS HINTING AT THE PRESENCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NEPA...IN WHAT WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE ONLY VIRGA.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM...IS FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY CONVECTION
ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE LIT UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/IDAHO SUNDAY EVENING AND CARRIED THEM THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY FELL APART BUT
NEW STORMS ARE FIRING CLOSE THE UPPER WAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
WHILE DIGGING UPPER WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST AN AXIS OF VORTICITY MAY EXTEND DOWN FRONT IT TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT.

COMPLICATED SET UP MAKES FOR A FAR FROM CERTAIN FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION DETAILS. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WARM SECTOR GETTING INTO MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOWS UP VIA A NARROWING AXIS OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
THETA-E RIDGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS SUCH AS 0-6KM AND 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES RAISE EYEBROWS FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...DYNAMICS ARE BETTER FAR NORTH...AND JET PLACEMENT IS NOT
IDEAL WITH OUR REGION BEING IN THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE EXIT
REGION. THIS IS NOT AT ALL STRONGLY FORCED IN REGARDS TO 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS /NEUTRAL AT BEST/. CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED
CAPE...PERHAPS EVEN NEARLY 1000 J/KG...ARE DEPICTED IN THE NAM BUT
MUCH LESS SO IN THE GFS. THERE ARE THUS COMPETING FACTORS IN THIS
PARTICULAR SET UP. AT THIS POINT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5
PERCENT CONTOUR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AT LEAST IN GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK. I INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN NEPA AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
CENTRAL NY. LONG STORY SHORT IS HIGH SHEAR-LIMITED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL UPPER DYNAMICS.

WHILE THUNDER DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST SHOWERS LOOK LIKE
A GOOD BET AND I HAVE THUS KEPT LIKELY RANGE FOR POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY PEAKING AROUND AN INCH
HOWEVER...AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL GREATLY LIMIT AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER QUICKLY EXIT
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE. DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW THURSDAY EXISTS WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING BELOW DRY
MID LEVELS. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LOWER- THAN-GUIDANCE
DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN POPULATED
ACCORDINGLY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH IN NEPA...AND 25-35 MPH
IN CENTRAL NY...APPEAR PROBABLE IN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING...SO FULL SUNSHINE AND LOW DEWPOINTS THURSDAY SHOULD
HELP MAX TEMPERATURES TO MANAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE HIGHS. COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY WILL
BEND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND CLIMATOLOGY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY INTERESTING PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF GREENLAND EARLY ON. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO....CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY INCH OUT TO SEA AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE
JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND EFFECTIVELY PLACING NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ALONG
THE SFC...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING OVER OUR REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY DRY WX BY
KEEPING A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WX
FOR SATURDAY AS THE FORMER SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE
NEWLY ARRIVING ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH FIRM HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
REACHED. UPPER RIDGING TO FINALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VALUES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LGT
SHWRS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND LOWER WYOMING VLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING HOWEVER DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED VIRGA. MAIN FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. EXPECT SHWRS/POSSIBLE STORMS TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z ACROSS THE WEST AS WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH ITH AND ELM
WITH REMAINING SITES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTERNOON INTO THU AM...OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL...FROM SCTD -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON -TSRA FROM STALLED BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.

THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI...VFR.

SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE AT AVP WITH POSSIBLE SHWR ACTIVITY. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

SUN...VFR RETURNS REGION-WIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS TIED IN BINGHAMTON THIS MORNING /30 DEGREES
INITIALLY SET IN 1996/...AND AVOCA /29 DEGREES IN 1996/. SYRACUSE
STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ITS RECORD LOW...WHICH IS 30 DEGREES
SET IN 1939.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
CLIMATE...