000
FXUS66 KEKA 201144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
444 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE BAY AND EEL
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
SPILL OVER THE DAMPENING RIDGE. ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER AND WETTER WX TO THE REGION.
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN THE W COAST TUE DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS APPROX 2-3 STD DEV BELOW
NORMAL. THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO 540-550DM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 3-4 KFT AS A RESULT. -SHSN MAY
RESULT IN A DUSTING ABOVE 5KFT WED AND THU...HOWEVER...WITH WARM
SOIL TEMPS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ADDITIONALLY...FROST...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A FREEZE...WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI MORNINGS...
BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT SKY COVER. TROUGH AXIS BEGINS
TO SHIFT E FRI BRINGING DRIER WX AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MINI-STRATUS SURGE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KFOT AND KACV.
IFR SHOULD GET INTO KCEC LATER THIS MORNING TOO. STRATUS LAYER
APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND THIN...BUT MAY LINGER NEAR THE SHORE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOLING ALOFT TONIGHT...SO IFR STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT AT NORTH COAST TERMINALS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE STILL STEEP EARLY THIS MORNING AND SATISFYING
THE CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS REACHING
CRITERIA FOR A WARNING IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT AND THE WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELED. ASCAT PASS YESTERDAY MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY 25KT
IN THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE MOST BUOY OBS IN FORECAST AREA WERE
UNDER 30 KT. ONE SHIP SOUTH OF PZZ475 DID REPORT 40 KT AROUND
10Z THIS MORNING. BUOY 27 JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DID
REPORT GUSTS TO 38KT SUNDAY EVENING. NAM12 AND GFS MODEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE MID 30S THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WILL BE FALLING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH
POUNCES DOWN ON THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. THUS WILL SCALE BACK THE DURATION
OF THE GALE WARNING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW LATE TNGT
AND TUE. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. DURATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS LOOKS SHORT-LIVED
AS TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP GRADIENTS LOOSE NORTH OF THE CAPE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG...PERHAPS REACHING MARGINAL GALE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT FROM TIME TO TIME. STEEP SHORT PERIOD N-NW
SEAS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS A SMALL LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENTERING THE MIX TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.
&&

$$

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