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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191755
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1055 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH RIM GCNP TO WINDOW
ROCK PER RADAR TRENDS.

NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THERE IS
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM CEDAR CITY THROUGH ST
JOHNS. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE A STABILIZING AIRMASS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWED A DEEP STABLE LAYER ABOVE
525 MB. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN UTAH NOW THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. THIS
AFTERNOONS MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE
EXCEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
REDEVELOPING NORTH OF A KGCN TO KRQE LINE WITH ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA
THREAT OVER NE AZ THROUGH AROUND 01Z-03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON
VILLAGE TO WINDOW ROCK LINE TODAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF