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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151617
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORS THE MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS
THAT FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM TOWARD THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...FOR TODAY WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA FROM CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY EVENING WILL PUSH INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING. ALSO...A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING NORTH
AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE HUGE UPPER LOW NEARING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL THEN MEANDER ONSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A DRYING TREND...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z EAST OF A
KGCN-KSEZ LINE WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS AND LITTLE RAIN. -SHRA/-TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL VERY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY. PRIMARILY DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EFFECT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTHERN
AZ. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT LITTLE
RAIN. ON SUNDAY...DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND VERY LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HAINES VALUES WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS/RICKEY
FIRE WEATHER...RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF