150
FXUS64 KFWD 070552
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers
and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD
sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was
quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to
our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue
to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east
through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to
confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we
cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit
more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.

Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a
shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper
low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary
northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper
level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the
stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to
climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post-
front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface
pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and
urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will
place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector
with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into
midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for
isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off
some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development
today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not
included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and
evening.

Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a
sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm
initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and
spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should
gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually
ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are
expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the
short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates
and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of
strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large
hail and damaging winds.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

Temperatures well above normal will continue on Wednesday as an
upper-level ridge settles in across the Southern Plains. Further
supporting this mid-week warmth will be our southwesterly winds,
which will aid in allowing afternoon highs on Wednesday to climb
into the upper 80s and lower 90s across North and Central Texas.
With dew points hanging out in the low to mid 70s, heat indices
will quickly approach the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across
Central Texas may even reach the 100 degree heat index mark.
While this sort of heat is not necessarily unprecedented for this
time of year, it will be important to keep an eye on friends and
loved ones who may be a bit more vulnerable to heat illness.

The other major talking point for this forecast involves the
continued potential for showers and thunderstorms through the rest
of the week. Our best potential will be through the afternoon and
evening hours on both Wednesday and Thursday. Much of this
activity will fire off along and east of the I-35 corridor, across
both North and Central Texas. The environment will remain
supportive of severe weather, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates and plenty of atmospheric instability to work with.
Sufficient shear for storm organization will also exist, leading
to our main threats including large hail and damaging winds. On
top of this, antecedent conditions remain conducive for additional
flooding concerns and will need to be closely monitored across
portions of Central Texas. There is quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the exact spatial coverage of thunderstorms as we are
still a few days out. Details will continue to be refined over the
next several days regarding this potential for severe weather
through the middle of the week, so continue to check back for
updates to the forecast as we move into the week ahead.

Much cooler and drier weather will return to the entire forecast
area as a cold front sweeps through North and Central Texas. Highs
through the weekend will cool into the mid to upper 70s through
the afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. This
will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms toward
the end of the weekend. As an aside, we are approaching that time
of year where the days with cool, continental air are numbered.
While it`s hard to say if this will be our last substantial cold
front of the season, the odds for additional cold fronts as we
move into the year are decreasing. Enjoy it while you can!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns: MVFR stratus returns early this morning and again
overnight into tomorrow morning; FROPA and northerly wind shift
this morning.

Stratus is streaming up into southern Central Texas and will
continue northward over the rest of the overnight hours,
eventually blanketing all of the TAF sites by daybreak. Unlike the
previous few days, the stratus will not stick around as an
cold front will move through the region and scour out low level
clouds. Expect FROPA and its accompanying wind shift at D10 around
14Z and at ACT around 15Z. North to northwest winds will prevail
at the TAF sites through the mid afternoon, before the front is
pushed back northward and winds return to the south. Southerly
winds will then remain through the rest of the period. MVFR
stratus will stream northward late tomorrow night into Wednesday
morning, and will be covered in full in future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  89  65  80  61 /   5  20  20  20  10
Waco                71  87  68  80  62 /  10  20  10  30  20
Paris               70  87  61  80  57 /  10  30  40  30  20
Denton              69  89  60  79  57 /   0  10  20  20  10
McKinney            70  87  63  79  58 /   5  20  30  20  10
Dallas              73  90  66  80  61 /   5  20  20  20  10
Terrell             70  87  64  80  58 /  10  20  30  30  20
Corsicana           73  89  69  82  61 /  10  20  20  30  20
Temple              70  89  69  81  61 /  10  10   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       69  90  61  79  57 /   0   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$