000
FXUS64 KFWD 231617
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday night/

Stratus across portions of Central and North Texas late this
morning will continue to lift and scatter with vigorous daytime
mixing, leaving a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Temperatures
will warm into the middle 70s to lower 80s across all but the far
west where middle 80s will be more common.

A strong cap of warm air aloft will hinder storm formation
through the afternoon but a few storms may manage to develop
across the Big Country along an eastward mixing dryline.
Therefore, we will maintain some low PoPs across the far western
zones. If any storm does manage to develop, it will have a
potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.

The center of surface low pressure will move to near Wichita
Falls this evening, allowing a weak cold front to ooze across the
Red River. There is a low chance for a storm or two to develop
along the front tonight but a lack of significant large scale
lift will keep the cap in place. The front is progged to stall
near the Red River on Wednesday and may provide the necessary lift
for a few showers and storms through the night with the best
chances across the northeast zones on the eastern periphery of a
building ridge aloft.

Low clouds will return overnight, remaining in place for much of
the morning Wednesday. Increasing low level warm air advection
will keep overnight lows in the 60s. Afternoon sun and increasing
southerly flow will allow highs to warm into the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. Wednesday night will be humid and mild with lows in
the middle and upper 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/Midweek Onward/

An active weather period is expected the latter half of the week
as a trough approaches the region. Several days of storms, some of
which could be severe, are in store this weekend. Specific timing
and coverage remain uncertain at this time.

As we move into Wednesday night, a few remnant showers and storms
may be ongoing from the afternoon convection off a dryline just
west of our region. Additionally, a stalled front along or just
north of the Red River may also provide just enough lift for an
shower or isolated thunderstorm. Any precipitation would likely be
limited to our far northern counties, along the Red River.
Regardless of precipitation, cloudy skies will prevail region
wide. This should help keep temperatures in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees through the night with southerly winds in place.

The dryline will once again sharpen during the day on Thursday,
however, placement is expected to be across West Texas and the
Panhandle. This will keep any precipitation away from the region
during the daytime hours. As we head into Thursday evening and
overnight, strong height falls associated with a passing shortwave
will lead to additional development of showers and storms along
the dryline. Given the enhanced forcing for ascent and plenty of
moisture within the warm sector, rain chances will be rising
Thursday night and continue through Friday. Severe weather
potential will remain low Thursday night, however, this will be
changing during the day on Friday.

The dryline will be shifting eastward on Friday, providing a
source of ascent while the upper trough is moving overhead.
Ascent, coupled with increasing instability on the order of 2000
J/Kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 30 kts will increase the
threat for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. All modes of
severe weather will be possible. The aforementioned dryline will
retreat westward on Saturday as North and Central Texas will be
in-between systems. Even with the westward retreat of the
dryline, there will still be a potential for warm advection
showers and thunderstorms during much of the afternoon.

A cold front will catch up the dryline Saturday evening/night as
the parent shortwave pushes northeast across the Central Plains.
Low-level flow ahead of the front will remain nearly parallel to
the boundary, limiting low-level convergence. If the lower levels
are able to gain a more south or southeasterly wind field,
thunderstorm coverage may be higher than currently forecast. The
guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere
across North or Central Texas, continuing the periodic rain
chances though at least the start of the next work week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAF/

MVFR stratus will continue to lift and scatter late this morning
with VFR expected at all TAF sites this afternoon. A few storms
may initiate on the dryline late this afternoon but any storm
that develops will be stay well west of the TAF sites. Stratus
will return overnight, reaching Waco between 08Z and 09Z and the
Metroplex TAF sites shortly after that. A slightly weaker low
level jet may actually allow ceilings to temporarily fall below
1000 ft for a few hours just after sunrise. Although ceilings will
begin to lift by late morning, deeper moisture will keep MVFR
ceilings in place through midday. Storm chances Wednesday should
stay closer to the Red River near a stalled front but impacts at
both the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts will be possible.

A south wind will remain in the 12 to 17 knot range this
afternoon, falling between 7 and 13 knots tonight/Wednesday
morning. Some higher gusts around 25 knots are possible,
especially this afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  64  81  68  81 /   0   5  10  10  10
Waco                77  63  80  68  81 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               76  61  77  65  79 /   0  20  30  20  20
Denton              79  62  80  67  81 /   0  10  20  10  10
McKinney            77  62  79  67  80 /   0  10  20  10  10
Dallas              79  64  80  69  82 /   0   0  10  10  10
Terrell             76  62  79  65  80 /   0   0  10  10   5
Corsicana           77  64  81  67  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              75  63  80  66  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  62  81  67  82 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$