Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KICT 251741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter weather minor impacts with snow/wind expected along
  the I-70 corridor west of Salina this afternoon through late
  this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Late cold season storm system to affect the area later today
through tonight with light snow accums and wind resulting in
minor travel concerns for portions of central Kansas. Dynamic
upper low will be slow to move east-northeast across the central
Plains the next 18-24 hours as the surface cold front merges
with the dry-line by late morning across south central Kansas.
Strong cold advection on stout north winds will overspread
central Kansas through late morning with falling temperatures
with southeast Kansas remaining much milder for one more day
with frontal passage not until later afternoon. Marginal
instability may reside across southeast Kansas prior to frontal
passage so will keep slight/modest PoPs there. If we get some
surface based redevelopment there this afternoon, there would be
adequate deep layer shear for a couple strong storms before
exiting stage right. Otherwise, the main short term focus will
be the return of a Winter-like feel across the rest of the area
during the day and into the evening. Prefer the stronger/slower
NAM solution which develops a modest trowal and deformation zone
where thermal profiles will support several hours of light to
perhaps moderate snow over portions of central Kansas later
today through early tonight. While relatively warmer surface
temperatures may limit initial accums, it seems plausible that
an inch or two of snow is possible with stronger north winds
creating minor travel impacts for this area either side of the
I-70 corridor. So will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this
area for light snow accums and winds near advisory criteria.

Dry weather though unseasonably chilly for Tuesday and Wednesday
as we remain within a mean longwave upper trof across the
central conus. The upper flow becomes less amplified/more zonal
for the latter portion of the week with slight ridging aloft
across the area with temperatures much above climo by Friday and
Saturday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to be dominate the weather
for the next 12 to 14 hours of the TAF period. This will also be
accompanied by snowfall and ICG conditions. The ICG conditions
in the low levels can be expected at all terminals until
clearing occurs after 10Z tomorrow morning. Snowfall is
primarily expected at KRSL, KGBD and KSLN. KRSL and KGBD are
terminals expected to see some accumulating snow. KSLN has a
decent chance for a dusting with KHUT and KICT likely to only a
trace of snow with flurries during the evening if snow occurs at
all. Winds will remain gusty creating moderate low level
turbulence at all terminals tonight. This wind and turbulence
issue is expected to abate after 15Z tomorrow. Clearing is also
expected from west to east with KCNU likely to be the last to
clear after 16Z tomorrow. Once clearing occurs, VFR conditions
will be expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-047.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
Tuesday for KSZ033-048.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.