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000
FXUS62 KILM 150702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A RELATIVELY CRISP START FOR MIDDLE
JUNE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL CLIMATE
READINGS UNDER PLENTY SUNSHINE TODAY. LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION
IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY...AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING MIGRATES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMPT
LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15
MPH WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IN THE MID AND LATE AFTN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...AND OFFSET A BIT
FROM LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60 TO NEAR 70 NEAR AT THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN FORECAST MODELS ARE ADVERTISING POPS...MAINLY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WITH A WIDE RANGE OF LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST
APPROACHING 90 EXTREME WESTERN AREAS AS THE REFRESHING AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE MODIFIES QUICKLY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON THE COMFORTABLE
SIDE.

FOR MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE A CONSIDERABLE JUMP WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. FORCING IS WEAK BUT THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CATALYST FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS WHILE FINE
TUNING TO EMPHASIZE THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
REGRADING THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OUT
WEST WITH MODEST RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE EAST A
MODEST TROUGH OR WHAT COULD BETTER BE DESCRIBED AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE PATTERN DEVELOPS. AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH MAKES A FRONT...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MORE LETHARGIC. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE USED SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED WPC POPS FOR THE PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO FIND SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING WITH THE SUMMER TIME EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINING
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH SHOW NO SUBSTANTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL.
THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR
SATURDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT MORNING WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE SE-S THROUGH AFTERNOON BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS
ABOVE 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AND TNGT...IN A MIX OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY CHOP AND LONGER PERIOD
SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WIND
SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A TYPICAL RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS SHOULD HOVER IN A 2-3 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND INCREASING THE GRADIENT
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS SOME CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST BUT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTORTION OF WIND
FIELDS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
AND POSSIBLY 3-5 FEET. THE WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHER VALUES WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL