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000
FXUS62 KMFL 160042
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
842 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE INTO THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...A CU FIELD WITH BASES AROUND 3-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES LITTLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY WITH A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CAP PERSISTING ALONG WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN. THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ONLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY MORE THAN AN INCH ON FRIDAY WHICH
IS STILL MINIMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE FORESEEN
THEREFORE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AN ONGOING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THERE COULD BE
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN EAST COAST SHOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH SUCH LOW PWAT VALUES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
POWERFUL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE
THIS WEEK WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS PHASED IN WITH THE MID LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH THEN FORECAST IT TO GET TRAPPED
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE BUT HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL SET UP IN RELATION TO ITS EFFECTS ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON WHICH RUN IS LOOKED AT, THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OR NOT. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THE
LAST RUNS WERE LOOKING LIKE POSSIBLE THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT DO
NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE
MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS, WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO KEEP A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CUMULUS, THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE TODAY,
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,AS WELL AS TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD
RELAX IN THE EVENING HOURS, AND MAY EVEN GO LIGHT AND CALM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT WILL TRY TO GET GOING, BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR
INLAND, IF IT DOES. GIVEN THIS, HAVE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IT IN THE KAPF
TAF, BUT MAY NEED TO BE PULLED IF IT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS MOSTLY LESS THAN 4
FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 35 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY
LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW INCREASE
OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  71  84 / -  -  -  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  75  85 / -  -  -  10
MIAMI            71  84  74  87 / 0 -  -  10
NAPLES           66  86  68  88 / 0 -  -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG