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000
FXUS62 KMFL 151350
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
AND 500 MB TEMP IS ABOUT -6. ALSO, IT SHOWS THERE IS A CAP AT
ABOUT 550MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT PWATS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
HERE AS WELL AS 500MB TEMPS WARMING AND A STRENGTHENING CAP. THERE
IS STILL CAPE OF AROUND 3000 JOULES. LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS, HAVE BACKED OF ON POPS FOR MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS LOWERED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWED
BE LESS COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY, AND PROBABLY MORE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE LAKE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
A WEAK WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ON-SET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THE TAF`S INDICATE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING AT 16Z BUT COULD
BE DELAYED EVEN FURTHER TO 18-19Z. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY INLAND OF THE TERMINALS WITH VCSH ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 16Z BUT ON-SET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EVEN FURTHER
DELAYED TO AROUND 18-19Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.

AVIATION...BNB/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DISSIPATING. CONVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING TSTMS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND GULF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS DRIED OUT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING
PWATS NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO NEGLIGIBLE POPS TODAY, THE HRRR AND SREF SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE STRONG HEATING AND STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, ALBEIT LOWER
THAN RECENT DAYS, HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DEPICTING ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR. WARMING ALOFT AS A GULF RIDGE
BUILDS IN WILL LEAD TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS INTENSE, THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SOUTHWARD TO THE LAKE REGION
TONIGHT-SUNDAY. STEERING FLOW IS MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, SO
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TUE-WED
WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING MID WEEK. TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. THEN DRYING LOOKS TO OCCUR THU-FRI
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
HAZY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH LESS TSTM COVERAGE, BUT
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN STEEPING LAPSE RATES OF THE
SAL...BUT THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRESENT. TOO FAR OFF IN TIME TO MAKE THAT CALL.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST-EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WESTERLY ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL PREDOMINATE OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE LESS THAN 15 KT WITH
LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN
TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  75  85  75 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  87  78 / 20 10 20 10
MIAMI            90  78  88  77 / 20 10 20 10
NAPLES           89  76  89  75 / 10 10 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD