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000
FXUS62 KMFL 122359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...BUT THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NIGHT WITH
IMPACTS...IF ANY...FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND FORECAST TO REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WITH ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS BY LATE MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, ACTIVE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
EVERGLADES GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN CLOUDY BUT
LIKELY ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PULSE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF SEASONABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LOCALLY STRONG AFTERNOON TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN. ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY IS THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE W/SW DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MOST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH METRO, WITH LESSER
COVERAGE ALONG THE GULF COAST.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEP LAYERED W/NW FLOW
RESULTING IN DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE AREA. IN FACT,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS FRIDAY WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST AT 20
PERCENT, FAVORING INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. IT WILL ALSO BE HOT ON
FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE GULF COAST WHERE THE GULF BREEZE
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE AS
IT REACHES THE LAKE AREA, WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND THE LAKE AREA. THEREFORE WILL BUMP POPS BACK UP TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS TO
FLORIDA WITH FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DEPICT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA. THE CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS IS LESSENED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINAL KAPF HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ALL TERMINALS
HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED VCTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EASTERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH WINDS POSSIBLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FT
IN THE WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS NORTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF
TROPICAL WAVE SKIRTS THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, LOWEST
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  73  92 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  89  76  91 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI            76  90  76  91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES           75  88  76  88 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...55/CWC
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD