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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 180358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. WITH
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
MARINE LAYER IS NOT WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT STRATUS WILL ONLY BE
AREAL IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALONG THE COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP SOME MORE ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST SO THERE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES MORE COOLING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND INLAND TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT GOING TO GET VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY INTERIOR AND LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED...ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD A WARM RIDGE OVER THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN CHARGE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSFO THAT CURRENTLY
HAS A BROKEN CIGS OF 1000 FEET. TEMPORARY CLEARING POSSIBLE BUT
AM GOING PESSIMISTIC WITH A PREVAILING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO-SAC HAS INCREASED TO OVER
5 MB. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER MOST AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED OVER KSFO WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THE STRATUS PULLING BACK TEMPORARILY THIS
EVENING. AS STATED ABOVE HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS EVENINGS
FORECAST AND HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT CONTINUES.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...1000 FOOT CIGS WILL SLOWLY FILL INTO THE
BAY THIS EVENING AFFECTING THE APPROACH BY 01Z-02Z. AN EARLY
CLEARING IS IN STORE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE BRIDGE SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
RETURNING AROUND 03Z OVER KMRY. CIGS WILL RETURN OVER KSNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 16Z OVER KSNS AND
18Z OVER KMRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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