000
FXUS64 KOUN 221945
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Active weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with severe
  storms possible each day; perhaps Sunday

* Low chance of storms across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas
  late Tuesday afternoon/early evening. A few strong to severe
  storms possible.

* Elevated to near-critical fire weather Friday afternoon across
  west central/northwest Oklahoma.


...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mainly clear conditions are expected tonight with a breezy south
wind.  Despite a clear sky, the wind and increase in dewpoints will
keep temperatures much warmer than this morning.

A few thunderstorms may develop by late Tuesday afternoon/early
evening, as a cold front moves across the area.  During peak
heating, the front is expected to extend from far southwestern
Oklahoma into central and northeast Oklahoma.  A capping inversion
may prevent thunderstorm development along the front, but there are
several models that suggest at least isolated storms will form by 5-
7 pm. Storms that form are expected to move a little south of east
around 15 to 20 mph.  This may help offset rather weak winds at
lower levels.  Regardless, it appears if strong to severe storms
form, the main hazard may be strong winds given rather high cloud
heights.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Storms that form along the front Tuesday afternoon/evening will
likely dissipate by the mid to late evening. Overnight into
Wednesday morning, widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
should develop across the northern half of Oklahoma within mid-level
warm advection.  This activity may linger through the morning and/or
move into eastern Oklahoma.

Still some uncertainly as how far south the frontal boundary will
reach by early Wednesday.  For now will go with the stalled front
near the Red River or slightly north of this.  With rather deep
easterly flow north of the boundary and a decent saturated layer,
light showers and drizzle may be the main precipitation type from
the late morning into the afternoon/early evening.  Although
guidance has lowered high temperatures north of the boundary
Wednesday, this may not be low enough.

Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, low level winds will
begin to veer and increase.  This may result in a better chance
of elevated thunderstorms, generally from central/north central
Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma.  Elevated instability will support
some strong to perhaps severe storms.

How far north the warm front will lift Thursday is still uncertain.
It possible that severe storms may develop near the warm front in
northern Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon with additional convection
along the dryline in the Panhandles. A trough will lift northeast
into the central and northern Plains late Thursday into Friday. As
this occurs much drier will push into the western half of Oklahoma
by midday Friday afternoon.  It possible that additional severe
storms may form along a dryline/pacific front which will mainly
impact the eastern half/third of Oklahoma.

Another stronger trough is expected to lift across the southern and
central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.  With a more southern
track, this system has the potential to produce more widespread
significant severe weather.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gusty south/southwest winds will continue through the afternoon
with perhaps a few high-based cu. Winds will diminish some this
evening, but remain breezy. Even with these winds LLJ will
strengthen sufficiently for LLWS to be a concern overnight
everywhere but DUA. Southwest winds will again increase Tuesday
morning. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma and will shift
winds to the northwest at WWR mid-morning. There will also be
some MVFR ceilings at DUA Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  81  57  68 /   0  10  30  60
Hobart OK         53  85  56  71 /   0  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  53  84  60  80 /   0  20  20  20
Gage OK           54  78  51  67 /   0   0  30  30
Ponca City OK     53  78  51  68 /   0  10  30  50
Durant OK         52  77  61  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30