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FXUS61 KPBZ 190923
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
523 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH. CONTINUED TO KEEP PATCHY FOG TO
TUCKER...PRESTON...AND GARRETT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

DRY AIR AS OBSERVED FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS REASSURES HIGH
PRESSURE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH A SUNNY SKY WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE ECMWF HAS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HENCE...THE WELL ABOVE MAX TEMPERATURES
THE GFFX MOS GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING. THEREFORE...HAVE USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 07Z OR SO WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS PUSHING SOUTH UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF IFR FOG AT KMGW WHERE BEST RAIN FELL TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AT KHLG
AND KZZV. SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP GENERAL VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office