Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 24/1200 UTC THRU JAN 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA---NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DAY 1 WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROF OFF THE SOUTHWEST
CANADIAN---PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE
TROF AXIS WILL BE PUSHING INLAND THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S.---HELPING TO PUSH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL DEFINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES TO THE
WASHINGTON-OREGON COAST AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA---BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AFTER 0000 UTC INLAND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN-NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND PW VALUES DROP ALONG
THE FRONT.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VALUES LIKELY FROM
THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE NORTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COAST RANGES---WITH
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA/FAR
SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST RANGES WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF DAY 1 WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST OREGON/NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN ID AN FAR NORTHWEST MT.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTH TX

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WEST
SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TX WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING FAR
NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTH TX.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS AFFECTED FAR SOUTH TX WITH ANY
HEAVY AMOUNTS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MEXICO.

UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO ROTATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS INTO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE VICINITY OF WEST VIRGINIA
AND FAR WESTERN MD.

NORTHERN MN---NORTHERN WI INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI

A FARTHER NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MB INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY UPPER
LAKES REGION.  THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MN---NORTHERN WI INTO THE WESTERN U.P.--WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST.

FAR SOUTH FL INTO THE KEYS

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DAY 1.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DAY 1 QPF DID
NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS THIS PERIOD.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 537199 535189 535182 533178 529170 523162 511150 498139
      492133 488130 483129 476126 470125 469129 471137 463139
      458139 454141 451143 447140 445137 441135 437133 434137
      433152 434157 437160 441164 443167 445171 443174 438181
      434183 431183 433179 434173 433169 430165 427162 421159
      418159 414160 412162 409167 403173 401178 402180 402184
      405187 410188 413186 415189 413191 410194 403198 399198
      395195 387189 379185 371181 368180 365180 359184 359189
      360194 362198 362202 355201 345191 344197 341201 341206
      343211 345214 344218 339225 337227 339230 351234 354236
      354240 356249 357252 359253 364255 368258 369263 370267
      373270 380275 388276 396276 423260 430257 435257 440259
      448260 459263 477269 485270 494275 499282 502286 506288
      510287 512283 516273 522252 529226 537199
 0.01 504952 504936 501926 495921 494914 494906 492901 492894
      492878 493873 492866 488859 485856 481857 480863 481869
      480885 475892 473897 473902 470915 480922 482932 485935
      488936 489939 489954 492965 494968 497965 502957 504952
 0.01 476697 475689 472687 468689 466694 461701 452705 444709
      440712 439716 441721 445722 448724 452724 458723 461720
      467713 471706 476697
 0.01 423869 423865 422862 421858 419856 418853 416851 415854
      411852 411856 411861 412866 414868 415870 417870 421871
      423869
 0.01 412833 407817 407812 408808 408799 403790 392792 385794
      379797 374802 371808 369814 370822 373824 377825 379826
      383825 385823 387827 389833 394839 395839 398837 405836
      408834 412833 412833
 0.01 266794 265789 261788 258790 256793 251796 247796 244799
      243803 240813 238822 241824 245822 248820 251817 257811
      262805 265796 266794
 0.01 265966 266957 265947 261943 255941 250943 245947 241951
      237957 233971 232987 231990 231994 233999 237004 243006
      245005 247001 251996 257986 263972 265966
 0.25 511260 513253 513246 512239 511236 507225 503216 496199
      499195 502194 513194 518191 521186 523179 522172 520168
      515159 504147 489135 482132 479135 479140 483147 480151
      475151 469147 465147 462152 462167 462172 458173 451156
      444150 441146 438147 437154 440157 448162 449167 448173
      451178 450182 450185 452188 458185 473178 479178 483181
      487190 488195 487198 484202 480203 466209 462209 458211
      455213 451213 442215 435213 421202 419203 416208 406206
      401204 398202 390197 376189 371186 367184 363186 365191
      371196 374200 374204 373209 370211 360211 357213 357219
      360227 363231 364236 368244 372247 376249 379252 382256
      391260 398258 413255 429253 446250 455249 464250 473253
      483258 496269 501273 504273 506270 509263 511260
 0.25 488231 489229 489228 487226 486225 484225 482224 481224
      479225 478225 478228 480230 480231 481233 483234 483235
      484235 486234 487233 488232 488231
 0.25 254804 254802 252802 250804 249806 250807 252806 253806
      254804 254804
 0.25 259966 260960 257956 254955 250957 248961 247966 246970
      246976 248979 253978 255976 257972 259966 259966
 0.50 507248 508243 507237 506232 504226 501220 497214 492215
      490219 491224 492230 495236 499241 503245 507248
 0.50 500269 499263 497259 494248 492243 489239 482237 476229
      472229 466227 467223 468220 466217 463215 459215 441218
      436217 431216 427216 423219 421224 417227 415228 416224
      417220 417214 412212 403207 395202 386196 376191 372189
      372193 384209 384214 381217 376217 370217 367219 368225
      371235 375238 379240 382244 384249 386252 389254 392254
      401253 410251 419250 453245 463245 468246 474249 483253
      491259 500269
 0.50 506174 501166 494161 490158 485157 477154 472152 467151
      466153 465157 466162 469166 472169 480173 488178 493180
      496179 504176 506174
 0.50 507154 504150 500148 496145 493142 490139 486137 485141
      488144 492148 496150 499152 504154 507154
 0.50 452173 451171 451170 451171 450173 451174 452173
 1.00 479238 478236 477234 476234 474234 474235 473237 473239
      473240 475242 476242 478241 478240 479238
 1.00 429243 428239 426236 417232 414230 414225 415221 415217
      407213 401208 386200 383201 386204 389207 390211 392214
      396217 404220 405224 404228 396228 388229 386231 386235
      387240 389243 398247 406247 414246 422246 425246 429243
      429243
 1.50 426242 425239 423237 416235 413234 411231 412226 414222
      414217 410216 407216 405214 400211 397208 394209 395213
      397215 406218 407226 407229 406232 399231 394233 394237
      395240 400244 404245 409243 415242 422243 426242
 2.00 421241 422238 421238 419237 418236 416236 416237 417239
      417240 419241 421241 421241
 2.00 413221 413219 412218 410218 408220 407222 407223 407225
      408227 410227 411226 412223 413222 413221
 2.00 404243 405240 405239 404238 403236 402235 400235 399236
      399239 401241 402242 404243 404243
 2.00 399213 398211 397210 396210 396212 398213 399213

$$





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