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000
FXUS65 KPSR 162108
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSING BY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BRING A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO A COOLING
TREND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL THEN START TO WARM AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS...WITH MANY SITES REPORTING MID TO UPPER 90S FOR 2PM MST
TEMPERATURES. BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
SPREADING LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
CENTRAL VALLEY...NEVADA AND UTAH. TO THE SOUTH...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER THE DESERTS AS FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. EXPECT MILD AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...GENERALLY
20KTS/25MPH OR LESS...TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SLOWLY TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...MORE NOTICEABLE BREEZINESS TO EVEN LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IT WILL MOVE IN TO CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY...WITH ANY
ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE MORE LIKELY TRANSLATING TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DECKS THAN ACTUAL ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY POTENTIAL
AREAS OF VORTICITY/OMEGA SUPPORT NEVER SYNC WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVEMENT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES NEXT TO NOTHING FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHT DECREASE OF THICKNESSES AND COOL CORE
MOVEMENT ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW DEGREES TEMPERATURE COOLING FOR
THE SURFACE...DROPPING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

TROUGHING QUICKLY DEPARTS TO OUR EAST LATE SATURDAY...LEAVING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. PACIFIC RIDGING...PROGGED 590DM OR
GREATER...WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...CLEAR NIGHTS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TRIPLE DIGITS TO THE FORECAST AS
EARLY AS MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL GENERATE SOME INCREASE IN WIND BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER OUR SERN CA ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKENING ON FRIDAY. SOME LATE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS /POSSIBLY
AROUND 30KTS AT BLH AND IPL/...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCALIZED BREEZINESS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
UTAH AND ARIZONA...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20MPH. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
TEENS EACH DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS