National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 122051
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 PM MST WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 102-108 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH
DAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE THE
110 MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 103-109 RANGE AS OF 20Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES A MIXED BAG OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE HIGH DECK FROM ABQ TO TUS...WITH A LARGER AREA
STRETCHING FROM UTAH THROUGH NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. IN
BETWEEN...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO GO AND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL 8PM.

HOT TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND 850MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 27C WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SUBTLE COOLING TOMORROW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY FROM 30C
TODAY TO 28C TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS
CLOSER TO 108...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER TODAY.

THIS LOW WILL ALSO PULL SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD AND
MODEL FORECAST 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS CLIMB TO AROUND 5 G/KG IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA...LACK OF ANY
MLCAPE WHATSOEVER...AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY MEAGER MOISTURE
PROFILES...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME IMAGINING MUCH MORE THAN CU EAST
OF PHOENIX. I HELD ONTO THE CLIMO POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX BUT EVEN SINGLE DIGIT POPS MAY BE TOO MUCH. FOLLOWING THE
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW ON SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY AS MOISTURE PLUMMETS TO AROUND 3 G/KG AND BELOW 2 G/KG
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH THE 591-594DM HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
BEING INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE IN RELATION TO ANOTHER EVOLVING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT
COULD DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT THE HOT TEMPS WOULD BE REALIZED. RIGHT
NOW...SIDING WITH A WARMER SOLUTION -- IT IS SUMMER -- AND TAKING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR 110 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT SITES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT TO BKN CIGS AOA 20 TO 25KFT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WELL TO THE E-NE OF THE PHX AREA
IS ALSO EXPECTED...GNLY CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. AFTN WESTERLY BREEZES
WILL PERSIST LATER FOR THE PHX TERMINALS BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
DIURNAL SE HEADINGS NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH AFTN GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A SLOW INCREASE
NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL DECLINE FRIDAY LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. NO STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE FAMILIAR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     AZZ022-023-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MEYERS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
