Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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158 FXUS63 KSGF 010824 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 324 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low rain chances today (20 - 30%) with much higher chances Thursday (70-90%) including heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flooding. - The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend and early next week with highest chances on Saturday (50-60% chance). - Temperatures will remain above average through at least the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis showed a broad west to southwest upper level flow pattern from the Pacific into the southwest and central US. Low level moisture was plentiful with a 30-45kt low level jet pumping 1.2in precipitable water through the southern and central Plains. Surface low pressure was strengthening across the panhandle of Texas with a front stretching northeast through Kansas into southern Missouri. Dewpoints were in the 60s south of this front. A decaying MCS was located across northern Oklahoma and has just grazed southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri. Higher instability southwest of the area has caused the bulk of the higher precip to remain southwest of the area with rainfall amounts less than 0.75in. Areas east of Highway 65 have seen little if any rainfall. A weak MCV/wake low was located on the northern side of the decaying MCS across southern Missouri (just north of SGF) and was causing some brief wind gusts of 30-40mph. Temps remain mild in the middle to upper 60s. Today: Warm air advection and orientation of the 850mb jet and front should keep the majority of the showers and storms to our southwest through the rest of the early morning hours. Since precip amounts have remained low we will likely cancel the Flood Watch early. The surface front will continue shifting north today. Other than the front there does not appear to be any strong forcing mechanism therefore precip chances look low (less than 30 percent) and mainly confined to areas north of I-44. Latest RAP guidance however does show a small vort/shortwave rotating through this afternoon therefore will need to monitor if this can be enough to develop some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. While the airmass will be unstable, the bulk shear looks weak therefore severe storms are not expected. It will be warm again with highs in the lower 80s. Tonight: Stronger upper level energy will move through the northern Plains. A stronger low level jet looks to develop from Oklahoma into Kansas and majority of high res ensembles develop thunderstorms from western Oklahoma into central Kansas and far northwest Missouri closer to the front and stronger lift. These storms will weaken as they approach southeast Kansas and far western Missouri after midnight with brief gusty winds possible if they are able to survive into the area. The severe risk remains marginal at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Thursday: The area will be in a favored upper level jet location during the day as shortwave energy moves through and a front approaches the area by afternoon or evening. Models are not showing lot of instability, likely due to morning clouds. However with upper level lift increasing, showers and thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening. PW values up to 1.5in and weak storm motions look to promote efficient rainfall production therefore heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the main concern with WPC showing the entire area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. 00z HREF LPMM precip amounts do show small pockets of 1-3 inches therefore will need to monitor for a potential Flood Watch with future updates. Friday: Surface high pressure looks to slide into Iowa with the surface front pushing south to about the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Other than the front, not seeing much forcing for lift therefore precip chance during the day look to be around 30 percent or less. Saturday through Tuesday: An unsettled pattern continues. A shortwave trough looks to approach the area from the west on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. Given the majority of ensembles showing this, precip chances are now between 50-60 percent. NBM continues to suggest only 10-20% chances for 1 inch of rain with this system and given the progressive nature that appears reasonable. Quick on its heels is under shortwave late in the day Sunday or Sunday night with additional precip chances. While ensemble variance exists, there is a signal for a stronger system to emerge into the central plains next Monday into Tuesday with additional precip chances. The latest CIPS analogs, CSU probs and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index/Shift of Tails all show at least some signal for severe weather potential however confidence is low at this range. Temperatures do look to remain above average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on a daily basis. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms were moving through JLN and approaching SGF however they are weakening and confidence is not high that they will reach BBG. A brief period of gusty winds will occur with variable winds likely through 12z. South winds will then dominate through the rest of the period. There is a low chance for a shower or storm this afternoon at the sites however confidence is too low to include at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-077-088-093- 101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield