Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272042
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level troughing to our east is shifting further eastward
allowing more zonal flow into the Plains with resultant pressure
falls increasing southerly flow and low level moisture return.
Evening convection across the High Plains will spread eastward but
likely remain north of the area. Warming profiles will then
increase inhibition across the region while allowing temps to
continue a warming trend.

Frontal zone will become increasing active across the Central
Plains late Wednesday and especially Thursday as it continues a
slow southward advance. Convection along the western periphery of
the boundary Thurs afternoon may persist into the overnight hours
as it advances into the forecast area. The operational NAM seems
most aggressive in maintaining convective intensity and coverage
and QPF amounts reflect a stronger convective potential. There
remains considerable uncertainty in this period.

Thereafter the synoptic frontal zone and/or combined convective
outflow will reside across the forecast area providing a focus
for several rounds of convection Friday through Sunday. While the
boundary is likely to become less defined with time, lack of
stronger ridging aloft is likely to allow precip chances to
continue daily into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  75  92 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   69  93  73  92 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   71  90  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   65  88  67  87 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   65  88  69  88 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  90 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   70  90  73  89 /   0   0  10  10
F10   70  91  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   70  90  72  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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