Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310806
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON IS KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP...SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEAST SOME COLD ADVECTION LOW CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY...IN ADDITION TO MODEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...THAT THIS CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVELY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHATEVER
CLOUDINESS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AFTERNOON SUN WILL NOT HELP THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
MUCH...THOUGH...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION REMAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SOLIDLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. A
HARD FREEZE IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD CHOCTAW COUNTY TO THE
EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 LIKELY
AROUND HUGO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAYS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAYS...DESPITE A LIKELY INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
HANDLING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT IS AGREED UPON IS THAT
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION RETURNING FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  29  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   57  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  20  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  21  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  24  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  27  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  24  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  28  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22





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