Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 041134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS E OK BUT HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NE OK WITH
SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING INTO NW AR OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT BVO.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TUL/RVS/FYV/XNA/ROG AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT
THE SAME TIME A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED
ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...AREAS OF
CONVECTION CONTINUED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS
PANHANDLES AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD
OF THE EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION...CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASING
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD SOME
TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATER PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO BE
ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER...NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
COULD CREATE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO...WITH MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES POSSIBLE.

CHANCE TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. AGAIN...THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA WILL KEEP
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ALSO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY BEFORE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES SPREADING BACK INTO
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12



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