Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 241101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE FROPA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ENDING TSRA AT EACH LOCATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSRA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO
A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS PARTS
OF ECNTRL AND SE OK LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OBSERVED SOME SPORADIC 35-45
MPH GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WILL BUILD INTO NE OK LATER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP S
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN AR
WHERE THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN LIMITED. BREEZY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE DRYLINE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FAR WRN OK BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH OUR FORECAST AREA SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT OUR REGION TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT
SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR WRN SECTIONS. BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
BY SUNDAY AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
THE DRYLINE DRIVES EWD INTO CNTRL OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

ECMWF/GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.