Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251714
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front has passed through NE OK terminals with scattered
showers gradually expanding behind the front. Nearer the frontal
boundary and points eastward sufficient instability is present to
warrant a mention of thunderstorms. Ceilings will remain VFR until
the front passes and then a period of MVFR ceilings is likely from
late afternoon through evening. Dry advection will thereafter will
return ceilings to VFR levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Eastern extent of precip axis was known to be problematic and that
has held true as morning convection has waned along the western
periphery of the forecast area. Precip focus will now shift toward
the approaching frontal boundary with the wind shift currently
near the I-44 corridor across NE OK with the more robust airmass
change trailing westward. Precip is still expected to develop
along the frontal zone as it presses eastward through the day.
Updated forecasts this morning have reduced morning rain chances
along with corresponding precip amounts. Also increased the post
frontal wind gusts across NE OK for this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  56  76  48 /  70  20  10  10
FSM   89  65  76  50 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   85  63  76  48 /  60  30  10   0
BVO   76  52  75  46 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   83  57  72  44 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   85  58  72  46 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   81  57  75  48 /  60  30  10  10
MIO   79  54  72  47 /  70  10  10  10
F10   79  58  75  49 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   89  65  77  55 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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