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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190803
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
FSM   90  68  92  71 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   89  70  91  73 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   88  69  88  72 /  10  20  30  10
FYV   86  64  87  68 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   87  65  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   88  69  89  72 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  30  10
F10   88  70  90  73 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   89  70  92  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10