Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AS WE AWAIT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. CURRENT SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT GENERALLY AFTER 9Z
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA QUITE
RAPIDLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TO
UPDATE ANY FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS MAY TRY TO RISE INTO
MVFR LEVELS BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ROUND ONE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER IN NW AR. ROUND TWO BEGINS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE WITHIN
THE WARM CONVEYOR OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CENTERED NEAR YUMA AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM
CONVEYOR PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION GOING INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL TAIL OFF AFTER THAT. ROUND THREE
WILL BE WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL SEE THE BAND OF
PRECIP THAT SETS UP ALONG THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK
SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM SE OK UP INTO
NW AR. A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD DAYS AND NIGHTS TO BE
EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE THINGS TAIL OFF SOME GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOLER AIR DOWN THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW AVERAGE THRU THIS TIME.

A WARMUP SHOULD ENSUE GOING INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...AS THE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A MORE ZONAL...PROGRESSIVE REGIME TAKES
OVER. THIS IS A FAR CRY FROM THE WINTER STORM THE ECMWF HAD
FORECASTED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






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