Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232028
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY IS UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NW
AR AND FAR NERN OK.

DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL WORK AROUND W SIDE OF E COAST ANTICYCLONE
AND SHIFT INTO THE FAR NWRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THE IMPROVED MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER
TROF MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS NW OF I-44
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED BACK N.

LARGE SCALE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE NATION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAINTAINING THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
AREA. A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...BUT
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL-IN-ALL...COMFORTABLE
MORNING TEMPS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TX FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK SHOULD
GET A KICK NE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE WRN STATES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING GREAT
CONSISTENCY (ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
CUTOFF)...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW-END MAINLY FOR THE FAR ERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  82  58  84 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   52  82  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   53  83  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   51  81  54  84 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   46  79  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   47  79  53  80 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   52  81  55  83 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   51  79  55  82 /  10  10   0   0
F10   54  82  57  83 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   53  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





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