Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 172347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. BVO TAF SITE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. VARYING CEILINGS FROM
IFR TO VFR SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF THURSDAY. A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY LIFTING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF
SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING
CONSISTENCY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP MIXED PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE
WRN ZONES. STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  80  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  80  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  90  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  90  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  90  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  90  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  90  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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