Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301951
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WORD FOR THIS FORECAST IS "DRIER." LETS MAKE THAT TWO
WORDS..."MUCH DRIER."

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS LOOKING VERY SLIM.

REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE OK INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
(ABOUT 5-10F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY) ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE OK/NW AR.

SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL DIP SE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE GULF STATES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN RELATIVELY DRY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND MODEST UPPER RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR ERN SECTIONS
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCES TOO SLIM
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A WEAK WAVE INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS OVERDONE CRASHING
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  55  75  55 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   75  58  76  60 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   74  56  75  54 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   68  50  74  50 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   69  53  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   74  54  70  52 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   71  55  74  56 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   67  53  71  52 /  10  10  10  10
F10   72  55  74  55 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   78  59  77  58 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18





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