Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 202344
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread back over Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas this evening and overnight tonight while
southerly winds remain breezy. Stronger winds just off the
surface again tonight could create LLWS with the greatest
potential at Fort Smith. During the day Sunday...MVFR ceilings and
gusty southerly winds look to continue ahead of a cold
front/dryline approaching from the west. Rain and also
thunderstorm chances will become possible during the day with
Sunday afternoon over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas
having the higher potential. Thus...will introduce Prob30 groups
for MLC/XNA/ROG/FYV/FSM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns revolve around the strong storm system that
will move through the region tomorrow and into tomorrow night,
including both fire weather and strong to severe storm potential.

Morning cloud cover has diminished across all except parts of
southeast Oklahoma, with very warm afternoon temperatures the
result. Strong southerly winds have transported abundant moisture
into the region, with dew points from 15 to 25 degrees higher than
at this same time yesterday. The increased moisture is serving to
keep the overall fire danger at bay to some extent, as it will in
most of the area tomorrow as well. Cloud cover will increase again
overnight, once again leading to low temperatures near to above
normal highs for this time of year.

Showers should develop during the morning and into the early
afternoon hours tomorrow across the region, with instability
increasing just enough by mid to late afternoon to support at
least an isolated thunderstorm threat in most of the area. The
best chance for any thunderstorms remains across far southeast
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas during the early evening hours,
with a transition into central Arkansas by late evening/early
Monday morning. An isolated strong to marginally severe storm
remains possible in these areas before about 9-10pm, with strong
wind fields supporting a damaging wind threat.

As far as the fire weather threat tomorrow, confidence is high
that the worst conditions will remain across western and perhaps
central Oklahoma. The GFS remains the fastest and most aggressive
with the dry punch into parts of northeast Oklahoma mid to late
afternoon tomorrow, but other guidance, including the GFS
Ensembles, do not support this and as such, will go with a
slower arrival over the driest air. Going this direction will
lead to a lower fire weather threat tomorrow afternoon.

Monday looks to be the better fire weather day of the forecast
period, with strong westerly winds and lower humidities across
most of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Some of the
worst conditions are expected across areas that are not likely to
see wetting rains tomorrow afternoon and evening. At this point,
it looks like a strongly worded Fire Danger Statement day as
opposed to a Red Flag Warning day, though.

Fairly quiet conditions will exist for much of the remainder of
the upcoming work week, with the next chance for rain coming with
another system Friday into Saturday. Southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas again look to be in the rain sweet spot with that
system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  70  39  51 /   0  30  20  10
FSM   53  69  42  54 /  10  60  90   0
MLC   56  69  40  54 /  10  50  30   0
BVO   50  70  38  50 /  10  30  20  10
FYV   52  66  40  48 /  10  50  80  10
BYV   51  65  40  48 /  10  40  90  10
MKO   53  67  39  52 /  10  50  40   0
MIO   52  68  39  47 /  10  40  40  10
F10   53  68  40  53 /   0  40  20   0
HHW   56  68  41  57 /  10  70  50   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....20



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