Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290914
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   55  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   53  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   49  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10   53  29  49  35 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   59  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10




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