Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271140
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Northeast Oklahoma
will become possible across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas through the day as frontal boundary sags into the region.
VFR conditions should persist...though brief periods of MVFR
conditions may be possible within any thunderstorm activity.
Overnight tonight...precip chances begin to weaken and shift
south...however with limited coverage and uncertainty will keep
TAFs dry for now. Model soundings and guidance differ on fog
potential late in the TAF period and will thus defer to later
shifts for re- evaluation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection continues to fester across the region this morning in
wake of the earlier stronger storms. The corresponding boundaries
and/or forcing remain ill defined and confidence in short term
convective guidance is low thus a broad brushed chance of precip will
be carried for today. Drier low levels look to press southward
through the area tonight which is expected to focus the bulk of
precip to our south and west tonight through Tuesday.

The likelihood of one or more thunderstorm complexes to impact the
region begin to increase on Wednesday and especially Thurs into
Friday. This signal has been present for several days...however as
it typical within these patterns...the exact track of any evolving
complex will carry considerable uncertainty.

The unsettled pattern looks ton continue into next weekend with a
general decrease in convective potential expected as upper ridging
is poised to strengthen across the region. Temps through the
forecast period will be largely defined by extent of precip and
associated cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  94  71 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   93  72  94  71 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   92  72  92  68 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   91  68  92  67 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   88  66  90  64 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   86  66  89  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   91  71  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   91  68  92  67 /  40  10  10  10
F10   91  72  91  69 /  40  20  10  10
HHW   93  74  93  69 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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