Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 280452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will affect
the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites overnight.
MVFR ceilings will develop near sunrise and persist until at least
early Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
develop across the area Friday evening and will be increasing in
coverage by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A mid level shortwave was entering into Western Kansas late this
evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Kansas and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across
parts of Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...light rain showers were moving over Northeast
Oklahoma...mainly along and north of Interstate 44. Across the
rest of the CWA...partly to mostly cloudy skies and east to
southeasterly winds were common.

Overnight...scattered light rain showers along with possible
isolated embedded thunderstorms are forecast to continue to move
east northeast across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as
the shortwave lifts northeast across the Plains. For the evening
update...have lowered the thunderstorm potential as the greater
instability should reside near the wave in Kansas and also across
Texas were a surface frontal boundary was positioned. This
boundary is progged to lift into the CWA by Friday
morning...though most of the precip chances should be lifting out
of the region ahead of the boundary and instability.

Temperatures overnight look to only cool slightly as the boundary
over Texas lifts into the CWA and mostly cloudy skies remain over
the region. The cooler temps of lower 50s should be located
within the precip areas near the Kansas border to the upper 50s
in Southeast Oklahoma behind the lifting boundary. Made minor
tweaks to sky/temp/dewpoint grids based on current trends and
adjusted wind gusts down a bit as the shortwave looks to lift
more northeast of the CWA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     OKZ049-057-058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.