Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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525
FXUS64 KTSA 031932
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
232 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather is on tap for the remainder of this week and
beginning of the upcoming weekend, with more eventful weather
thereafter.

A strong shortwave visible in water vapor imagery just north of
the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles region will continue to drop to the
south and east this evening and into the overnight, with any
associated showers and thunderstorms likely to remain west of the
forecast area. Cloudiness will diminish toward tomorrow morning as
the wave moves south of the region.

A weak boundary will drop southward through Oklahoma and Arkansas
tomorrow afternoon and evening with a shift to northerly winds and
maybe a couple of degree drop in temperature following its
passage.

High amplitude upper level ridging will begin to build into the
area late this week and into the weekend, bringing above normal
temperatures back to the region. Have continued the trend of
forecasting temperatures that are a few degrees above those
offered by the blended guidance, given the favorable pattern.

For the latter half of the weekend, the ridging will begin to
break down as an expansive upper low approaches from the west.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase late
Saturday night and into Sunday, likely peaking Monday as the low
lifts northeastward into the Northern and Central Plains region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  73  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   48  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  77  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22



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