Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221623
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY SPLENDID SPRING DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE LIES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CA HEADS THIS WAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE PLAINS THRU THE WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FSM/FYV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PORTIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS PATCHY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK S ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE AFTERNOON...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR
PARTS OF NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK LATE IN THE
DAY...AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MAKES A RUN TOWARD ERN OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES EVENTUALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR
N. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO FALL ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E TOWARD OUR REGION.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  52  81  62 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   78  51  80  58 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   77  53  80  63 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   76  48  82  61 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   72  46  75  56 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   70  46  75  55 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   76  51  80  60 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   72  48  79  60 /   0   0  10  40
F10   76  53  80  62 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   79  54  80  63 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




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