Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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724
FXUS64 KTSA 152327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widely varying flight conditions across the region currently with
LIFR prevailing across NE OK raising to pockets of MVFR ceilings
over NW AR. Expecting all ceilings to lower into the IFR to LIFR
levels overnight as lift increases and widespread precip
overspreads the area. Thunderstorms were mentioned for KMLC and
KFSM sites later tonight. Heaviest precip shifts east of the
terminals by early afternoon with ceilings attempting to erode
and/rise into MVFR to VFR levels behind the departing storm
system.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Quite a temperature contrast this afternoon as the shallow cold
airmass remains across the western half of the forecast
area...with mid 30s across Osage counties to readings near 60 in
far southeast OK. Temperatures have only slowly warmed
today...but have at least risen several degrees above freezing
across parts of northeast OK thus ending any further threat of
icing.

Veering low-level winds will allow warm front/higher surface
dewpoints to surge north this evening and overnight. Todays high
temperatures will be realized toward midnight...with warming
temperatures expected throughout the remainder of the overnight
hours. This is all in advance of a strong upper cyclone poised to
eject negative-tilt style into the southern Plains tonight. An
initial lead band of showers will impact parts of eastern OK
later this afternoon...but the main area of showers and a few
storms will hold off until mid-late evening...with the
precipitation area pushing through most of the area by Monday
morning. The best instability will remain farther south across
TX...but still could get a strong storm or two across parts of
southeast OK along with some locally heavy rainfall.

Generally quiet weather is expected for the remainder of next
week. An upper system across the southwest will shear out through
the southern Plains by mid-late week...although the best moisture
should remain mostly south and east of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  59  34  51 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   52  68  42  54 /  70  70  10   0
MLC   54  66  36  54 /  90  50   0   0
BVO   40  55  31  49 /  90  20   0   0
FYV   52  63  37  49 /  70  70  10   0
BYV   48  65  40  49 /  60  70  10   0
MKO   51  64  36  50 /  90  50   0   0
MIO   46  62  37  47 /  80  60  10   0
F10   50  61  35  52 /  90  20   0   0
HHW   58  66  40  56 /  90  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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