Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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253
FXUS64 KTSA 082050
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cold air is firmly entrenched...although afternoon temperatures
have managed to (barely) breach the freezing mark across most
locations. Winds will die off this evening as the surface ridge
slides east...with Friday morning temperatures generally ranging
from 10-15F north of I-40 to 15-20F south of I-40.

Chilly again on Friday with a very cold start to the day...but
increasing south winds by Saturday will allow temps to rebound
back into the 40s and well into the 50s/lower 60s by Sunday.
Increasing low-level moisture expected to result in areas of
light drizzle/light rain late Saturday night into Sunday especially
across our eastern areas. This is ahead of the next cold front
that is scheduled to pass through Sunday night.

The broad cyclonic mid-level flow along with significant
cross-polar flow at the far northern latitudes will continue to
send surges of Arctic air through next week. Extended models in
good agreement that the next shallow cold airmass arrives later
Tuesday...with much colder air expected by Wednesday. The previous
run of the GFS had developed a band of light post-frontal snow
across the area...although the latest 12z run as backed off and
keeps all wintry precip well to our north. The forecast will be
kept dry for now...but we`ll certainly watch this closely over
the next several days.

Extended models are also consistent in bringing yet another surge
of cold air for next weekend. This remains just beyond the scope
of the forecast...but this airmass could be colder than what we`re
experiencing now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   15  36  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   19  39  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   15  39  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   10  35  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   12  36  18  42 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   14  33  20  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   15  37  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   11  33  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   14  37  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   20  42  25  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18



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