Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 130452
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NE OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE PERIOD BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN ANY TAFS DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES EAST-WEST ELONGATED 500MB RIDGE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER BALMY -3 TO
-4C TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL PER OUN RAOB AND TUL ACARS SOUNDING. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS WHERE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AS EXPECTED...HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AS WELL...BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED COOLDOWN BEGINS FOR MONDAY. INITIAL WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO THE SOUTH. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY...AND SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT CONTINUES TO
APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS POSSIBLY MISSING OUT ON THE RAIN
ENTIRELY. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER IS USED IN THE RELATIVE SENSE AS HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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