Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271618
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1118 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is largely on track.
Early morning convection has produced a substantial reinforcement
to the cold frontal boundary which currently extends from far NW
OK to along the KS OK border in NE OK. Short term solutions seem
somewhat aggressive in lifting this boundary northward this
afternoon and we tend to favor a more southern solution which
places a focus nearer NE OK. An additional area of concern will be
the dryline extending from the cold front southward through south
central OK by late afternoon. Both of these boundaries are likely
to serve as a focus for storm development later this afternoon.

The environment is extremely unstable with 35 to 50 kts of deep
layer shear overspreading the warm sector. Low level winds are
less impressive however the aforementioned cold front would be a
prime zone for enhanced low level shear especially given the level
of instability. Further south along the dryline convective
initiation is less certain however the idea of hot temps and deep
dryline circulation may well be enough to erode the cap. Initial
storm development within this zone could be a bit high based and
HRRR solutions offer impressive downburst wind signatures. By
early evening however any sustained supercell across SE OK looks
to experience a period of enhanced low level shear and forecast
hodographs become increasingly concerning before the cold front
and/or combined outflow boundary from storms further north
overtake any cellular activity.

Regardless the exact evolution the atmosphere is capable of
significant severe weather this afternoon through the early
morning hours. Stay weather aware.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  64  80  58 /  30  70  10   0
FSM   90  68  82  60 /  10  80  20   0
MLC   90  67  80  57 /  20  70  10   0
BVO   89  61  80  52 /  50  60  10   0
FYV   86  64  76  51 /  20  80  10   0
BYV   86  64  76  53 /  30  70  20   0
MKO   89  65  79  58 /  20  80  10   0
MIO   87  62  79  54 /  50  80  10   0
F10   89  64  79  57 /  20  80  10   0
HHW   88  71  81  60 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07


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