Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140854
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OF WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MOST
DAYS...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO BE SEEN.
NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM WELL ABOVE WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

STAYED NEAR OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  66  81  62 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   77  64  78  66 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   78  65  81  65 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   78  64  82  59 /  10  30  40  30
FYV   75  60  74  60 /  10  20  40  20
BYV   74  60  75  59 /   0  20  40  30
MKO   76  64  78  62 /  10  20  40  30
MIO   76  62  79  59 /  10  30  50  30
F10   77  65  79  62 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   77  64  82  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




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