Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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091
FXUS64 KTSA 242347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated showers will continue to dissipate this evening as
diurnal heating ends. Light southerly winds overnight will pick
up after 15Z with scattered cu developing by 17-18Z. Isolated
showers and t-storms will again be possible after 18Z. Cold front
will move into SE Kansas and near the far northern Oklahoma
terminals by late in the period. KFYV may see a bit of fog develop
after 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated convection has developed in the uncapped atmosphere with
a few showers extending as far west as highway 75. This activity
will bubble the remainder of the afternoon before dissipating
after sunset. Otherwise expect a quiet night with lows in the 60s
to near 70.

A deep longwave trof and associated frontal zone across the
western states will make slow progress east over the next several
days. Rain chances will increase late Monday into Monday night
across the northwestern parts of the forecast area...with better
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night as the cold front drifts south
through the region. Bulk of the precipitation should be
post-frontal as the main upper trof remains well to our west.
Overall rainfall amounts don`t look too impressive...but we`ll
see a welcome relief from the warm/hot weather of late by
mid-week.

The cooler weather should persist through the remainder of the
week...with another modest push of cooler air expected next
weekend. Have kept the weekend dry for now...although both the GFS
and ECMWF are now showing some minor QPF signals. Will wait to see
a bit more consistency before introducing PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  89  67  80 /   0  10  20  50
FSM   69  90  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  89  68  86 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   66  89  64  76 /   0  10  40  60
FYV   63  86  62  84 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   66  87  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   68  89  66  84 /   0  10  10  30
MIO   67  88  65  81 /  10  10  20  40
F10   69  88  67  82 /   0  10  20  40
HHW   68  90  67  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...11



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