Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231803
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFT 06Z TONIGHT AS STORMS
THAT FORM OUT WEST MOVE INTO THE REGION. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST AT THE NW AR TAFS. LATEST NAM/GFS TIME
HEIGHT RH PLOTS INDICATE SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS
SOME MVFR STRATUS POTENTIAL AFT 09Z AS WELL. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BACKING OFF DURING THE MORNING BEHIND A
WEAK FRONT THURSDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PV MAX NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HI PLAINS BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE NEAR
SPRINGFIELD CO/ELKART KS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME HI BASED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER THAT
REGION NOW...AND SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT US LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OUT WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD US TONIGHT...WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
MLC/XNA/FYV/FSM...AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT BVO/TUL/RVS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT BVO/TUL/RVS
AFTER 08-09Z...PERHAPS AFFECTING THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S AFTER
15Z...ESPECIALLY AT BVO/TUL/RVS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  52  81 /  40  50   0   0
FSM   59  77  50  82 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   64  77  49  82 /  30  40   0   0
BVO   61  74  47  82 /  50  50   0   0
FYV   55  71  42  77 /  20  60  10   0
BYV   55  72  47  78 /  20  60  10  10
MKO   61  76  49  81 /  30  40   0   0
MIO   60  73  47  81 /  40  60   0   0
F10   63  76  51  82 /  40  30   0   0
HHW   63  80  52  83 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.