Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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858
FXUS64 KTSA 291144
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weakening complex of storms is moving through northeast Oklahoma
this morning with occasional wind gusts over 20kt. There will be a
period of stratiform rain after the leading edge of the convection
pushes through. There is some chance for redevelopment of storms
later this afternoon...with more confidence at the AR terminals
where the airmass has the potential to become more unstable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water water imagery and H5 heights show upper level trough churning
across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this
morning.  An upper level trough deepens as it moves east of the
Hudson Bay into Quebec and as a result the ridge over the Midwestern
states has slowed its progress east. This in turn has slowed
movement of the closed low over the Southern Plains as well. The low
will slowly move east and begin to take more of a northern turn as
it moves up into Kansas and then onward to Missouri by Thursday
evening.

Radar this morning shows a large swath of showers and thunderstorms
working their way northeastward into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Further south, a line of showers and thunderstorms
extended from central Oklahoma down into central Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms were also common across much of northern
Oklahoma. Diffuse warm front has been working its way north and
currently looks to extend across east-central Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas.

Today: Severe threat continues today, but the bulk of the activity
will develop across the eastern CWA and quickly move into Arkansas
by early to mid afternoon. Convective line across Oklahoma will
continue to move east through the morning hours. Hi-res models have
the overnight convection dying off by late morning over eastern
Oklahoma, however, given the lack of convection and general
overturning of the atmosphere, it shouldn`t take much to get the
area primed for afternoon convection. On the other hand, abundant
cloud cover and lingering morning convection may hinder development
some. This may impact where and when the afternoon convection
develops. Instability axis looks to extend from northeast Oklahoma
southward into Texas by 18Z with storms forecast to develop along
this axis by early afternoon, according to hi-res models. Strong
flow aloft and increasing LLJ will support strong rotating updrafts,
thus large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible.

Thursday and Friday: Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms
possible overnight Wednesday and Thursday morning as surface low
tracks along the KS/OK border and into southwest Missouri. This
activity will wind down from west to east through the afternoon.
Temperatures will be a bit chilly Thursday with highs topping out in
the 50s and low 60s. The rest of week looks quiet as we fall between
systems.

Saturday through Tuesday: A wash-rinse-repeat cycle still in play as
another upper level system ejects out of the southern Rockies and
into the Southern Plains by late in the weekend. This system will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The
current track is a bit more south than the previous two systems, so
the bulk severe potential should also remain south of the forecast
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  48  56  43 /  80  40  50  10
FSM   76  53  60  45 /  80  50  40  10
MLC   75  49  60  44 /  80  30  30  10
BVO   73  48  56  41 /  80  40  50  10
FYV   73  50  56  44 /  80  50  50  20
BYV   72  52  58  44 /  80  70  60  30
MKO   74  50  57  44 /  80  40  40  10
MIO   71  49  56  43 /  80  50  50  20
F10   73  48  57  43 /  80  30  30  10
HHW   76  52  64  47 /  80  30  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI



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