Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 090928
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave was moving into the Great Lakes region early this
morning. From this wave...a weak surface boundary extended
southeast into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with
westerly winds behind the boundary and light/variable winds ahead
of it. Mostly clear skies were also common across the CWA with
temps in the 20s to low 30s.

The shortwave will continue to progress east- southeast today with
the upper level trof axis moving through the region during the
morning hours. This will allow for breezy northwesterly winds to
spread across the CWA for this afternoon. Also behind the trof
axis...the slightly stronger cold air advection along with 850-mb
temps below 0C look to be positioned mainly over far Northwest
Arkansas. Thus...afternoon temperatures in the lower 40s are
forecast for these locations. For the rest of Northwest Arkansas
and also Eastern Oklahoma...mostly clear skies and 850-mb above 0C
should aid afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 40s/low
50s todays.

Overnight tonight...the shortwave is progged to move onto the East
Coast which will pull the upper level northerly flow currently
over the Central U.S. eastward as well. In response...a more west-
northwesterly upper flow is expected over the region for Sunday
into Monday. This will allow for breezy westerly winds and warmer
temperatures with highs in the 50s/lower 60s possible Sunday and
low/upper 60s Monday. Warmer temperatures and breezy conditions
along with ongoing dry conditions will increase fire dangers over
the CWA starting this afternoon and continuing Sunday and Monday.
Min relative humidity values by Sunday/Monday look to be
around/below 25 percent over parts of Eastern Oklahoma which could
elevate fire concerns.

Latest model solutions continue to indicate another low pressure
and associated weak frontal boundary dropping southeast through
the Plains Monday and through the CWA Monday afternoon/evening.
Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures will be possible
Monday night into Tuesday. A continued lack of moisture is
expected to keep the passage of this system dry as well. Through
the rest of the week...upper level northwesterly flow will allow
for a third wave to push through the region Thursday. Ahead of
this system...warmer temperatures will be possible Wednesday and
then back toward seasonal average Thursday and then another
warming trend again into next weekend looks possible. In the
end...a continued dry pattern remains in the forecast for the next
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   51  28  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  29  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  22  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   44  23  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  26  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   51  28  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   45  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
F10   51  29  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20



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