Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172135
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast issues for tonight/early Wednesday will be rain
chances associated with a compact upper low centered near El Paso
this afternoon, and potential for some fog tonight.

Rain beginning to spread into north Texas this afternoon in warm
conveyor belt east of the upper low. Considerable lightning has
been noted through today both in the warm conveyor and near the
low center and as the system moves ENE, deeper moisture will begin
to spread north into eastern OK this evening and eventually to
parts of western AR later tonight. While brunt of the instability
should remain focused across Texas, most short range models
suggest some elevated CAPE will eventually work into far southeast
OK, and will add a small chance of thunder for late tonight in the
far south.

There will be some potential for fog to develop fairly early this
evening, especially across northwest AR and far northeast OK as
winds die down. Low clouds have been slow to clear these areas,
but should mostly do so by early evening, offering a period of
clear skies before higher level moisture begins to stream north.
HRRR and to a lesser extent the RAP have remained bullish with
reducing visibility over much of this area during the evening.

The upper low will gradually move northeast Thursday with most of
the significant precip shifting to the east, while as a strong
southern stream Pacific jet develops. This will provide us with an
active weather pattern, with initial wave passing to our north on
Friday and a stronger system taking a more direct aim on the
southern plains. Rain chances will mainly be limited to far
southeast areas until Saturday night Sunday when upper low moves
nearby, with wrap around moisture likely impacting the area into
Monday. This would be a favorable winter storm setup but for one
thing...it has to be cold to snow...and there is no cold air to be
had in this pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  53  42  61 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   41  53  45  60 /  50  30  40  20
MLC   41  54  43  63 /  60  20  20  10
BVO   32  52  39  59 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   34  53  42  58 /  20  20  30  20
BYV   35  51  41  56 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   38  53  43  61 /  30  20  20  10
MIO   32  54  41  59 /  10  10  20  10
F10   38  53  42  62 /  40  20  20  10
HHW   45  55  46  64 /  80  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14



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