Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190954
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A number of challenges in this forecast, including heavy rainfall
over parts of eastern OK and most of western AR, along with some
icing potential mid week.

Deep plume of moisture with sub-tropical origins continues to
surge north across the region this morning, and this unseasonably
moist airmass will remain with us for an extended period of time.
Temperatures running at least 30 degrees above normal presently
with south winds gusting around 30 mph in many areas. Should see
winds remain just below advisory levels through today as moist air
through deep layer should prohibit mixing of strongest wind speeds
to the surface. Rain and isolated thunder continues to expand
across far southeast OK into west central AR, as well as near the
I-44 corridor, and a general increase in activity should continue
through the morning hours.

Strong cold front poised to move into northeast OK Tuesday.
Initial cold air surge will likely stall over north central OK
this afternoon and push back north before much colder air pushes
south during the day Tuesday. Widespread heavy rain appears likely
Tuesday with the arrival of the front with amounts of 1-3 inches
common. Given the dry conditions of late this shouldn`t pose much
in the way of flooding issues as the axis of heaviest rainfall
shifts to the southeast by Wednesday.

With colder temperatures in place Tuesday night and Wednesday,
there will be potential for light freezing rain as a secondary
upper level wave in southwest flow lifts northeast. There has
been a trend toward focusing the heavier amounts of precip with
this wave to our northwest, but some light ice accumulations will
be maintained in the forecast for a large part of northeast OK. At
this time a high impact event is not expected.

The active weather will continue into next weekend with areas of
rain and isolated to scattered thunderstorms move back into the
area Thursday and Friday. By this time the shallow cold air should
retreat well to the north. Heavy rainfall may again be possible
during this time, perhaps with a threat of localized flooding
across southern and eastern areas as 7 day rainfall totals in the
5-8 inch range will be possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  64  68  27 /  80  80 100  40
FSM   69  64  71  42 /  80  80  90 100
MLC   69  66  69  35 /  80  90 100  70
BVO   68  63  65  24 /  60  70 100  20
FYV   66  64  67  35 /  80  90 100 100
BYV   66  63  69  33 /  80  80 100 100
MKO   68  64  68  32 /  80  90 100  70
MIO   68  62  66  26 /  80  80 100  60
F10   69  65  68  30 /  80  80 100  60
HHW   70  65  69  42 /  60  70  90 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14


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